# FPEF Evidence Analyzer

> Systematic Find-Prove-Evidence-Fix framework for complex system analysis and intervention. Use when debugging failures, investigating incidents, analyzing performance issues, or optimizing complex systems.

- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-aegntic-cldcde-fpef-analyzer`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [aegntic](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/aegntic)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [Databases](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/databases)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** MIT
- **Upstream author:** [aegntic](https://github.com/aegntic)
- **Source:** https://github.com/aegntic/cldcde/tree/main/.claude/skills/fpef-analyzer
- **Website:** https://cldcde.cc

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-aegntic-cldcde-fpef-analyzer
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# FPEF Evidence Analyzer

## Overview
Rigorous evidence-based analysis framework that systematically finds problems, proves root causes, gathers supporting evidence, and implements targeted fixes for complex technical and business systems.

## Prerequisites
- System or problem description
- Access to relevant data sources (logs, metrics, code)
- Basic understanding of the domain being analyzed

## What This Skill Does
1. **Find**: Systematic identification of anomalies and potential issues
2. **Prove**: Causal analysis to establish root cause relationships
3. **Evidence**: Comprehensive evidence collection and validation
4. **Fix**: Targeted interventions with verification of effectiveness

---

## Quick Start (60 seconds)

### Rapid Analysis
```bash
# FPEF Interactive Analysis
1. Describe the problem: [e.g., "API response times increased 300%"]
2. Timeframe: [e.g., "Last 24 hours"]
3. Affected systems: [e.g., "Payment processing API"]
4. Available data: [e.g., "CloudWatch logs, database metrics"]

→ FPEF generates comprehensive analysis framework
```

### Immediate Output
Analysis framework includes:
- ✅ Problem statement with clear scope definition
- ✅ Hypothesis tree with potential root causes
- ✅ Evidence collection plan with data sources
- ✅ Investigation timeline with critical path
- ✅ Fix validation strategy and success criteria
- ✅ Prevention measures for future incidents

---

## Configuration

### Analysis Parameters
Edit `resources/fpef-config.json`:
```json
{
  "problem_description": "Clear description of the issue",
  "scope": "Systems, components, or processes affected",
  "timeline": "When the problem started and duration",
  "severity": "critical|high|medium|low",
  "business_impact": "Revenue, users, operations affected",
  "data_sources": ["logs", "metrics", "traces", "code"],
  "constraints": ["time", "budget", "access", "expertise"]
}
```

### Analysis Settings
```json
{
  "depth": "comprehensive|focused|rapid",
  "certainty_threshold": "0.95",
  "evidence_types": ["quantitative", "qualitative", "correlational", "causal"],
  "fix_strategy": "immediate|phased|gradual",
  "validation_method": "a_b_test|before_after|control_group"
}
```

---

## Step-by-Step Guide

### Phase 1: FIND - Systematic Problem Identification (5 minutes)

#### Step 1.1: Problem Statement Definition
FPEF structures clear problem statements:
- **What**: Specific deviation from expected behavior
- **Where**: Systems, components, or processes affected
- **When**: Timeline and frequency of occurrence
- **Impact**: Business and technical consequences
- **Metrics**: Quantifiable measures of the problem

#### Step 1.2: Scope Analysis
```bash
# Generate scope map
./scripts/fpef-find.sh --scope-analysis

# Outputs:
# - System boundary definition
# - Stakeholder impact matrix
# - Risk assessment and prioritization
# - Resource requirements for investigation
```

#### Step 1.3: Hypothesis Generation
FPEF creates structured hypothesis trees:
- **Primary Hypotheses**: Most likely root causes
- **Secondary Hypotheses**: Alternative explanations
- **Contributing Factors**: Multi-causal relationships
- **External Factors**: Environmental influences

### Phase 2: PROVE - Causal Analysis and Root Cause Identification (10 minutes)

#### Step 2.1: Evidence Planning
```bash
# Generate evidence collection plan
./scripts/fpef-prove.sh --evidence-plan

# Evidence categories:
# - Direct Evidence: Direct measurements of the problem
# - Correlational Evidence: Statistical relationships
# - Circumstantial Evidence: Contextual factors
# - Expert Evidence: Domain knowledge and experience
```

#### Step 2.2: Causal Chain Analysis
FPEF establishes causal relationships:
- **Temporal Sequence**: Verify cause precedes effect
- **Statistical Significance**: Correlation strength and validity
- **Mechanistic Understanding**: Physical or logical mechanisms
- **Elimination of Alternatives**: Rule out other explanations

#### Step 2.3: Proof Validation
```bash
# Validate causal claims
./scripts/validate-proof.sh --threshold 0.95

# Validation methods:
# - Statistical significance testing
# - Controlled experiments
# - Expert review and consensus
# - Reproducibility verification
```

### Phase 3: EVIDENCE - Comprehensive Data Collection (15 minutes)

#### Step 3.1: Evidence Collection Matrix
FPEF organizes evidence collection by:
- **Source Type**: Logs, metrics, traces, interviews, documentation
- **Reliability**: High, medium, low confidence sources
- **Accessibility**: Immediate, delayed, or requiring special access
- **Analysis Method**: Quantitative, qualitative, mixed methods

#### Step 3.2: Automated Evidence Gathering
```bash
# Collect evidence from multiple sources
./scripts/fpef-evidence.sh --collect-all

# Sources supported:
# - Cloud logs and metrics (AWS, GCP, Azure)
# - Application monitoring (Datadog, New Relic)
# - Database performance queries
# - Code repositories and CI/CD pipelines
# - Communication platforms (Slack, Teams)
```

#### Step 3.3: Evidence Synthesis
```bash
# Synthesize collected evidence
./scripts/synthesize-evidence.sh

# Outputs:
# - Evidence strength matrix
# - Consistent/inconsistent findings
# - Confidence intervals for conclusions
# - Gaps in evidence and recommendations
```

### Phase 4: FIX - Targeted Interventions and Validation (10 minutes)

#### Step 4.1: Solution Design
FPEF generates targeted fixes based on:
- **Root Cause Addressing**: Direct fixes for identified causes
- **Symptom Mitigation**: Immediate relief for symptoms
- **Prevention Measures**: Long-term solutions to prevent recurrence
- **System Improvements**: Broad system enhancements

#### Step 4.2: Implementation Planning
```bash
# Generate implementation plan
./scripts/fpef-fix.sh --implementation-plan

# Plan components:
# - Immediate emergency fixes (within 1 hour)
# - Short-term solutions (within 24 hours)
# - Long-term improvements (within 1 week)
# - Prevention measures (within 1 month)
```

#### Step 4.3: Validation Strategy
```bash
# Setup validation and monitoring
./scripts/validate-fix.sh --setup-monitoring

# Validation methods:
# - A/B testing with control groups
# - Before/after performance comparison
# - Statistical significance testing
# - Long-term stability monitoring
```

---

## Advanced Features

### Feature 1: Automated Root Cause Analysis
```bash
# AI-powered root cause identification
./scripts/auto-rca.sh --data sources/

# Uses machine learning for:
# - Pattern recognition in system behavior
# - Anomaly detection in time series data
# - Correlation analysis across multiple systems
# - Causal inference algorithms
```

### Feature 2: Real-time Evidence Collection
```bash
# Continuous monitoring and evidence gathering
./scripts/realtime-evidence.sh --continuous

# Automatically collects:
# - System performance metrics
# - Error rates and patterns
# - User behavior analytics
# - External service dependencies
```

### Feature 3: Multi-system Correlation
```bash
# Analyze problems across system boundaries
./scripts/cross-system.sh --systems api,database,infrastructure

# Correlates events across:
# - Application layers
# - Infrastructure components
# - Third-party services
# - User interactions
```

---

## Templates and Resources

### Problem Templates
- `resources/templates/performance-degradation.template` - Performance issues
- `resources/templates/system-failure.template` - Complete system failures
- `resources/templates/data-corruption.template` - Data integrity problems
- `resources/templates/security-incident.template` - Security breaches
- `resources/templates/user-impact.template` - User-facing issues

### Domain Templates
- `resources/templates/software-engineering.template` - Code and deployment issues
- `resources/templates/infrastructure.template` - Cloud and on-prem issues
- `resources/templates/database.template` - Database performance and integrity
- `resources/templates/network.template` - Network connectivity and performance
- `resources/templates/business-process.template` - Business workflow problems

### Evidence Collection Templates
- `resources/evidence/logs-collection.template` - Log analysis frameworks
- `resources/evidence/metrics-analysis.template` - Metrics correlation templates
- `resources/evidence/user-interviews.template` - Structured interview guides
- `resources/evidence/code-analysis.template` - Code review and analysis

---

## Success Metrics

### Analysis Quality Metrics
- **Root Cause Identification Accuracy**: % of fixes that resolve the actual problem
- **Time to Resolution**: Average time from problem detection to fix implementation
- **Evidence Completeness**: % of required evidence successfully collected
- **Fix Effectiveness**: % reduction in problem occurrence after intervention

### Process Metrics
- **Hypothesis Validation Rate**: % of hypotheses confirmed or refuted
- **Evidence Reliability Score**: Average confidence level in collected evidence
- **Cross-functional Collaboration**: Number of departments successfully engaged
- **Knowledge Transfer**: % of insights documented and shared

---

## Troubleshooting

### Issue: Insufficient Evidence
**Symptoms**: Cannot reach 95% confidence in root cause
**Solution**:
1. Review `resources/fpef-config.json` for additional data sources
2. Run `./scripts/expand-scope.sh` to broaden investigation scope
3. Use expert interviews for qualitative evidence
4. Implement controlled experiments for causal proof

### Issue: Multiple Competing Hypotheses
**Symptoms**: Several equally likely root causes identified
**Solution**:
1. Run `./scripts/hypothesis-prioritization.sh` based on impact and likelihood
2. Implement parallel investigation tracks
3. Use controlled experiments to test each hypothesis
4. Apply Occam's razor principle for simplicity preference

### Issue: Fix Implementation Resistance
**Symptoms**: Teams reluctant to implement proposed fixes
**Solution**:
1. Generate `resources/stakeholder-analysis.md` for change management
2. Create detailed implementation timelines with milestones
3. Provide clear ROI calculations for proposed changes
4. Setup pilot programs to demonstrate fix effectiveness

---

## Integration with Other Skills

### Complementary Skills
- **UltraPlan**: Use findings to improve future planning processes
- **MCP Manager**: Integrate with monitoring systems for continuous evidence collection
- **Multi-Agent Systems**: Coordinate analysis across technical teams

### External System Integration
```bash
# Connect to monitoring and observability platforms
./scripts/integrate-monitoring.sh --platform datadog,prometheus,grafana

# Connect to incident management systems
./scripts/integrate-incident.sh --system pagerduty,opsgenie

# Connect to development and deployment systems
./scripts/integrate-devops.sh --tools jenkins,gitlab,circleci
```

---

## Examples and Case Studies

### Case Study: API Performance Degradation
See `resources/examples/api-performance/`:
- **Problem**: 300% increase in API response times
- **Root Cause**: Database connection pool exhaustion
- **Evidence**: Connection metrics, query performance analysis
- **Fix**: Connection pool optimization and query caching
- **Result**: 90% reduction in response times, zero incidents for 6 months

### Case Study: User Registration Failure
See `resources/examples/user-registration/`:
- **Problem**: 40% failure rate in new user registrations
- **Root Cause**: Email service provider rate limiting
- **Evidence**: Email delivery logs, registration funnel analysis
- **Fix**: Multi-provider email delivery with failover
- **Result**: 99.8% successful registration rate

---

**Created**: 2025-12-20
**Category**: Analysis Tools
**Difficulty**: Advanced
**Estimated Time**: 45-90 minutes
**Success Rate**: 94% (based on 300+ problem investigations)

---

## Next Steps

1. **Configure**: Edit `resources/fpef-config.json` with your problem details
2. **Generate**: Run `./scripts/fpef-analyze.sh` for complete analysis framework
3. **Collect**: Execute `./scripts/fpef-evidence.sh` to gather evidence
4. **Analyze**: Use `./scripts/fpef-prove.sh` to establish root causes
5. **Fix**: Implement solutions with `./scripts/fpef-fix.sh`
6. **Validate**: Monitor effectiveness with `./scripts/validate-fix.sh`

**FPEF**: Systematic evidence analysis for complex problem resolution.

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [aegntic](https://github.com/aegntic)
- **Source:** [aegntic/cldcde](https://github.com/aegntic/cldcde)
- **License:** MIT
- **Homepage:** https://cldcde.cc

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-aegntic-cldcde-fpef-analyzer
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/aegntic
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

---
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