# Prediction Market Oracle Research

> Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice.

- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-affaan-m-ecc-prediction-market-oracle-research`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [affaan-m](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/affaan-m)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [AI & ML](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/ai-and-ml)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** MIT
- **Upstream author:** [affaan-m](https://github.com/affaan-m)
- **Source:** https://github.com/affaan-m/ECC/tree/main/skills/prediction-market-oracle-research
- **Website:** https://ecc.tools

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-affaan-m-ecc-prediction-market-oracle-research
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# Prediction Market Oracle Research

Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source,
forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.

## Guardrails

- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the
  implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run `llm-trading-agent-security`
  before granting any write authority.

## Research Workflow

1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
4. Evaluate signal quality:
   - liquidity
   - spread
   - market age
   - trader/incentive concentration if known
   - resolution authority
   - geography or account restrictions
5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research,
   customer data, or internal KPIs.
6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated
   decision.

## Integration Patterns

- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a
  threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.

## Output Contract

Use:

1. decision context
2. market sources
3. signal quality
4. comparison sources
5. integration recommendation
6. caveats

End with:

```text
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
```

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [affaan-m](https://github.com/affaan-m)
- **Source:** [affaan-m/ECC](https://github.com/affaan-m/ECC)
- **License:** MIT
- **Homepage:** https://ecc.tools

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-affaan-m-ecc-prediction-market-oracle-research
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/affaan-m
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

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Listed on AgentStack — the marketplace for AI agent skills and MCP servers. Every listing is security-reviewed. Creators keep 70%.