# Alphagbm Marks Cycle

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- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-alphagbm-skills-alphagbm-marks-cycle`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [AlphaGBM](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/alphagbm)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [Agent Skills](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/agent-skills)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** MIT
- **Upstream author:** [AlphaGBM](https://github.com/AlphaGBM)
- **Source:** https://github.com/AlphaGBM/skills/tree/main/skills/alphagbm-marks-cycle
- **Website:** https://www.alphagbm.com/skills

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-alphagbm-skills-alphagbm-marks-cycle
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# AlphaGBM Howard Marks Cycle

"Cycles are real — the shape just isn't predictable." Howard Marks's framework
rejects forecasting and replaces it with cycle-position awareness: offense when
others are pessimistic, defense when others are optimistic.

This skill gives you the one number Marks's entire philosophy implies: *where
are we right now*.

## The Cycle Score

Each signal is mapped to its own cycle component 0-100, then weighted:

| Signal | Weight | Interpretation |
|--------|--------|----------------|
| **VIX** | 40% | Low VIX → complacency → late cycle (high score). High VIX → fear → early cycle (low score) |
| **IV Rank (SPY)** | 25% | High IV rank → fear → early cycle |
| **Put/Call ratio** | 20% | Low P/C → complacent → late cycle |
| **Valuation percentile** | 15% | Higher PE percentile → later cycle |

Weights renormalize when data points are missing (e.g., P/C not available).

## Posture Bands

- **0-24** → `OFFENSE_HARD` — extreme fear is opportunity. Buy aggressively.
- **25-39** → `OFFENSE` — add, sell vol (short premium).
- **40-59** → `NEUTRAL` — maintain positions, watch for shifts.
- **60-74** → `DEFENSE` — don't add, brace for volatility.
- **75-100** → `DEFENSE_HARD` — trim, buy protection (long puts / collars).

## Why This Is a Separate Skill

`alphagbm-vix-status` gives just a VIX tier. `alphagbm-market-sentiment` gives a
sentiment dashboard. This skill is the one-call **Marks-specific** read:
"given everything I know about sentiment + valuation, what's the posture?"

## How to Use

**Input:** none (market-level, no ticker)

**Output:**
- `cycle_score`: integer 0-100
- `posture`: one of `OFFENSE_HARD / OFFENSE / NEUTRAL / DEFENSE / DEFENSE_HARD`
- `posture_zh`, `posture_en`: natural-language prescription
- `components`: per-signal `{value, cycle_component}` breakdown

## Example Queries

- `where are we in the cycle right now` → headline cycle number + posture
- `should I be playing offense or defense` → posture directly answers
- `Howard Marks read on the market` → same data, framed as Marks would
- `is this a buying cycle` → cycle  60 → no
- `current sentiment across VIX and IV rank` → components breakdown

## Mock Data

Mock data in `mock-data/marks-cycle/` — sample showing NEUTRAL position.

## API Endpoint

```
GET /api/masters/marks-cycle
```

No body, no auth required.

Response shape:

```json
{
  "success": true,
  "cycle_score": 47,
  "posture": "NEUTRAL",
  "posture_zh": "中性 — 维持既定仓位,观察情绪变化",
  "posture_en": "Neutral — maintain positions, watch sentiment",
  "components": {
    "vix": {"value": 22.5, "cycle_component": 48},
    "iv_rank": {"value": 55, "cycle_component": 45}
  },
  "timestamp": "2026-04-24T08:00:00"
}
```

Pricing: **free — no auth, no credit deduction**. 5-min cache.

## Related Skills

| Skill | Relevance |
|-------|-----------|
| [alphagbm-vix-status](../alphagbm-vix-status/) | Raw VIX tier without Marks's multi-signal blend |
| [alphagbm-market-sentiment](../alphagbm-market-sentiment/) | Fuller sentiment dashboard (VIX + P/C + F&G) |
| [alphagbm-fear-score](../alphagbm-fear-score/) | Per-ticker version of the same "where's the fear" idea |

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*Powered by [AlphaGBM](https://alphagbm.com) — Real-data options & research intelligence. 10K+ users.*

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [AlphaGBM](https://github.com/AlphaGBM)
- **Source:** [AlphaGBM/skills](https://github.com/AlphaGBM/skills)
- **License:** MIT
- **Homepage:** https://www.alphagbm.com/skills

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-alphagbm-skills-alphagbm-marks-cycle
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/alphagbm
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

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Listed on AgentStack — the marketplace for AI agent skills and MCP servers. Every listing is security-reviewed. Creators keep 70%.