# Alphagbm Tepper Signal

> |

- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-alphagbm-skills-alphagbm-tepper-signal`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [AlphaGBM](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/alphagbm)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [Agent Skills](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/agent-skills)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** MIT
- **Upstream author:** [AlphaGBM](https://github.com/AlphaGBM)
- **Source:** https://github.com/AlphaGBM/skills/tree/main/skills/alphagbm-tepper-signal
- **Website:** https://www.alphagbm.com/skills

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-alphagbm-skills-alphagbm-tepper-signal
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# AlphaGBM Tepper Panic-Buy Signal

David Tepper made two historic panic-bottom calls: March 2009 ("I'm betting on
the Fed") and March 2020 (COVID bottom). Both had identical fingerprints: VIX
spiked > 40, multi-indicator fear was maxed, and Tepper loaded quality large-caps
(banks 2009, SPY/QQQ 2020).

This skill mechanizes that fingerprint.

## The Signal Logic

Three gates must all pass for the signal to arm:

1. **VIX ≥ 35** — extreme fear, not just elevated
2. **FearScore ≥ 80** — multi-indicator panic (reuses existing FearScore module:
   VIX + IV Rank + RSI + Volume + Put/Call + Consec-Down-Days)
3. **Quality filter** — market cap > $50B AND profit margin > 0 (no memes,
   concept stocks, or pre-revenue small caps)

When all three pass → `signal: true`, level: `armed`.

## Signal Levels

| Level | Condition | Prescription |
|-------|-----------|--------------|
| `armed` | VIX ≥ 35 AND Fear ≥ 80 | 🔥 Historic-level buying moment — scale into SPY/QQQ/DIA |
| `watch` | VIX ≥ 30 OR Fear ≥ 70 | ⚡ Approaching — prepare capital, don't act yet |
| `near` | VIX ≥ 25 OR Fear ≥ 60 | Lukewarm — far from Tepper-level panic |
| `cold` | below | Calm — **the patience state**, which is most of the time |

**Tepper's own framework includes "do nothing" as a first-class state.** Most
calls to this endpoint will return `cold` — that's by design. The value isn't
in the signal firing often, it's in *never missing* a VIX > 40 event.

## Why This Is a Separate Skill

`alphagbm-fear-score` gives the raw panic index. `alphagbm-vix-status` gives
the VIX tier. This skill combines them with Tepper's specific criteria
(quality filter + threshold rules) to produce a single yes/no decision.

## How to Use

**Input:**
- `ticker` (optional, default `SPY`) — the quality-filter applies to this ticker

**Output:**
- `vix`, `fear_score` — the two input signals
- `vix_pass`, `fear_pass`, `quality_pass` — per-gate booleans
- `signal` — final boolean
- `level` — `armed / watch / near / cold`
- `recommended_etfs` — `["SPY", "QQQ", "DIA"]` (quality large-cap universe)
- `advice_zh`, `advice_en` — natural-language prescription

## Example Queries

- `is this a Tepper buy signal` → call with default SPY
- `panic-buy check on QQQ` → substitute QQQ
- `should I buy the panic now` → returns `cold` if calm → "wait, this is the patience state"
- `am I missing a historic bottom` → the only time this fires, the answer is "yes, don't miss it"
- `Tepper-style entry for DIA` → quality large-cap → passes quality filter

## Mock Data

Mock data in `mock-data/tepper-signal/` — samples for `armed` (VIX 42, Fear 85) and `cold` (VIX 17, Fear 35).

## API Endpoint

```
POST /api/masters/tepper-signal
Content-Type: application/json
```

Request body:

```json
{"ticker": "SPY"}
```

Response shape:

```json
{
  "success": true,
  "ticker": "SPY",
  "vix": 42.0,
  "fear_score": 85,
  "vix_pass": true,
  "fear_pass": true,
  "quality_pass": true,
  "signal": true,
  "level": "armed",
  "recommended_etfs": ["SPY", "QQQ", "DIA"],
  "advice_zh": "信号激活 — VIX 42.0、FearScore 85。按 Tepper 2009/2020 规则,分批买入大盘质量 ETF (SPY, QQQ, DIA)。不要买概念股或小盘股。",
  "advice_en": "Signal armed — VIX 42.0, FearScore 85. Per Tepper 2009/2020, scale into quality large-cap ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA). No memes, no small caps.",
  "timestamp": "2026-04-24T08:00:00"
}
```

Pricing: 1 option-analysis credit per call; 5-min cache per ticker (cache hits free).

## Related Skills

| Skill | Relevance |
|-------|-----------|
| [alphagbm-fear-score](../alphagbm-fear-score/) | The underlying panic index — component of this signal |
| [alphagbm-vix-status](../alphagbm-vix-status/) | Standalone VIX tier — complementary read |
| [alphagbm-duan-analysis](../alphagbm-duan-analysis/) | Duan's VIX ≥ 35 panic-buy philosophy on a specific ticker |

---

*Powered by [AlphaGBM](https://alphagbm.com) — Real-data options & research intelligence. 10K+ users.*

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [AlphaGBM](https://github.com/AlphaGBM)
- **Source:** [AlphaGBM/skills](https://github.com/AlphaGBM/skills)
- **License:** MIT
- **Homepage:** https://www.alphagbm.com/skills

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-alphagbm-skills-alphagbm-tepper-signal
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/alphagbm
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

---
Listed on AgentStack — the marketplace for AI agent skills and MCP servers. Every listing is security-reviewed. Creators keep 70%.