# Market Sizer

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- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-anugamchakra-think-like-a-strategy-consultant-market-sizer`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [AnugamChakra](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/anugamchakra)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [Agent Skills](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/agent-skills)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** MIT
- **Upstream author:** [AnugamChakra](https://github.com/AnugamChakra)
- **Source:** https://github.com/AnugamChakra/think-like-a-strategy-consultant/tree/main/growth-market-skills/market-sizer

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-anugamchakra-think-like-a-strategy-consultant-market-sizer
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# Market Sizer

The headline number is almost always the wrong number. A market with a huge Total Addressable Market
and a tiny obtainable share is not a large opportunity, however good it looks on a slide. This skill
sizes a market honestly, in three layers, using two independent methods so the estimate can be
trusted.

## The method

Size three layers:

- **TAM (Total Addressable Market)** — the maximum if you captured everything. This makes the
  headline.
- **SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)** — the portion you could realistically serve given your
  model and geography.
- **SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)** — the portion you could realistically capture given
  competition and your current position. This is what actually matters.

Estimate the market **two ways** and reconcile them, because a single method hides its own errors:

- **Top-down** — start from a large published figure and narrow by segment, geography, and
  addressability. Search the web for a current, citable anchor rather than recalling one from
  memory; a sizing built on a stale or misremembered headline number inherits its error in every
  layer below.
- **Bottom-up** — start from units: number of potential customers × adoption × price × frequency.

Run the arithmetic programmatically (a quick script or calculator) rather than in your head; chained
multiplications are exactly where sizings quietly go wrong.

If the two methods diverge by more than roughly 2x, that gap is information; find which assumption is
doing the damage before you trust either number. State every major assumption and give a confidence
level.

## Output format

- **Top-down estimate:** the chain of figures and where each came from (with sources when
  searched).
- **Bottom-up estimate:** the unit build-up.
- **TAM / SAM / SOM:** the three layers, with SOM as the headline conclusion.
- **Reconciliation & confidence:** why the two methods agree or differ, key assumptions, and how
  confident to be.

## How to run it

Default to producing the estimate: both methods and the three layers, never handing back a single
TAM figure without its assumptions and a SOM. Switch to coaching when the user signals they want to
build it: ask them for the inputs to each method and help them reconcile; the reconciliation is the
skill.

## Where this breaks

Market sizing is only as good as its assumptions, and for genuinely new markets there is no reliable
base rate, so the estimate is a structured guess, not a measurement; presenting a precise figure for
an unknowable market is false confidence. Top-down anchoring on a big published TAM also biases the
whole estimate upward. Show ranges, not false precision, when the inputs are soft.

## Style

Plain language, define TAM/SAM/SOM on first use, no em dashes, short paragraphs. Lead the conclusion
with SOM, not TAM.

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [AnugamChakra](https://github.com/AnugamChakra)
- **Source:** [AnugamChakra/think-like-a-strategy-consultant](https://github.com/AnugamChakra/think-like-a-strategy-consultant)
- **License:** MIT

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-anugamchakra-think-like-a-strategy-consultant-market-sizer
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/anugamchakra
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

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