# Tokenomics > A Claude skill from brainbytes-dev/everything-claude-trading. - **Type:** Skill - **Install:** `agentstack add skill-brainbytes-dev-everything-claude-trading-tokenomics` - **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior - **Seller:** [brainbytes-dev](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/brainbytes-dev) - **Installs:** 0 - **Category:** [Finance & Payments](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/finance-and-payments) - **Latest version:** 0.1.0 - **License:** MIT - **Upstream author:** [brainbytes-dev](https://github.com/brainbytes-dev) - **Source:** https://github.com/brainbytes-dev/everything-claude-trading/tree/main/skills/crypto/tokenomics ## Install ```sh agentstack add skill-brainbytes-dev-everything-claude-trading-tokenomics ``` Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent. ## About # Tokenomics Analysis ## When to Activate - Evaluating a token's supply dynamics, emission schedule, and value accrual mechanisms - Assessing vesting unlock schedules and their potential market impact - Analyzing inflation/deflation mechanics and burn mechanisms - Comparing governance token designs and fee distribution models - Due diligence on new token launches, airdrops, or protocol incentive programs ## Core Concepts ### Supply Framework **Supply Definitions:** - **Max supply** — hard cap on total tokens that will ever exist (BTC: 21M, not all tokens have a cap) - **Total supply** — tokens minted minus tokens burned (includes locked/unvested tokens) - **Circulating supply** — tokens available for trading on the open market - **Fully diluted valuation (FDV)** — price * max supply (or total supply if no max); represents worst-case dilution - **MC/FDV ratio** — circulating market cap / FDV; low ratio means significant future dilution **Critical Insight:** A token with $100M market cap and $2B FDV has 95% of supply yet to enter circulation. This overhang suppresses long-term price appreciation unless demand growth outpaces supply inflation. ### Emission and Inflation **Emission Schedules:** - **Fixed schedule** — predetermined, immutable (BTC halving every 210,000 blocks) - **Governance-controlled** — community votes on emission rates (many DeFi protocols) - **Demand-based** — emissions adjust based on protocol metrics (Ethereum post-merge: issuance ~ staking participation) - **Tail emission** — small perpetual inflation after initial distribution (Monero: 0.6 XMR/block forever) **Inflation Rate Calculation:** ``` Annual inflation = (new tokens minted per year) / circulating supply Real inflation = nominal inflation - burn rate Effective inflation = real inflation adjusted for staking lockup ``` **Inflation Impact Framework:** - 50% annual: unsustainable; typically farm-and-dump dynamics ### Vesting Schedules **Standard Vesting Components:** - **Cliff** — period before any tokens unlock (typically 6-12 months) - **Linear vesting** — tokens unlock proportionally over time after cliff - **Unlock events** — discrete large unlocks (e.g., 25% at TGE, then monthly for 24 months) **Market Impact Assessment:** ``` Unlock impact score = (tokens unlocking / daily trading volume) * recipient_sell_probability Recipient sell probability by category: - Team/founders: 30-50% (incentivized to hold, but need liquidity) - VCs/investors: 50-80% (mandate to return capital, often hedge) - Ecosystem/community: 10-30% (typically smaller holders, mixed behavior) - Treasury: 5-15% (usually programmatic spending, not market selling) ``` **Red Flags in Vesting:** - Multiple large unlocks clustered in same month - Team allocation >25% of total supply - Investor cost basis far below current price (high incentive to sell) - No lockup for advisory tokens - Vesting acceleration clauses tied to token price milestones ### Value Accrual Mechanisms **Fee Distribution Models:** - **Direct fee sharing** — protocol fees distributed to token stakers (e.g., GMX: 30% of fees to GMX stakers) - **Buyback and distribute** — protocol buys tokens on market, distributes to stakers - **Buyback and burn** — protocol buys and burns tokens, reducing supply (deflationary) - **Fee switch** — governance can activate fee sharing (Uniswap: fee switch exists but not activated) - **veToken model** — lock tokens for voting power and fee share (Curve: veCRV) **Value Accrual Analysis:** ``` Protocol P/E = FDV / annualized protocol revenue Protocol P/S = FDV / annualized protocol fees Token holder yield = fees distributed to stakers / staked token market cap Real yield = yield from actual revenue (not token emissions) ``` ### Governance Token Economics **Governance Token Functions:** 1. Voting on protocol parameters (interest rates, collateral factors) 2. Fee distribution rights 3. Treasury allocation decisions 4. Protocol upgrade approval 5. Gauge/emission directing (Curve model) **Governance Token Valuation Drivers:** - Revenue capture (current and potential via fee switch) - Treasury value per token - Voting power value (bribery markets like Votium price governance power directly) - Growth optionality (new products, chains, partnerships) ## Methodology ### Token Evaluation Process 1. **Map the supply schedule** — chart tokens entering circulation over 5 years 2. **Identify unlock events** — mark major vesting cliffs on calendar, calculate volume-relative impact 3. **Calculate real inflation** — subtract burns and permanent lockups from gross emission 4. **Assess value accrual** — quantify fee revenue, distribution mechanism, and token holder capture rate 5. **Compare valuations** — benchmark P/E, P/S, and FDV/revenue against comparable protocols 6. **Model scenarios** — bull case (demand grows faster than supply), base case, bear case (emission dumping) ### Supply Shock Analysis ``` 1. Calculate daily emission rate in USD terms 2. Compare to average daily trading volume 3. Emission/volume ratio > 5%: significant sell pressure 4. Identify natural buyers (stakers, governance lockers, treasury) 5. Net selling pressure = emission - natural absorption 6. Project supply schedule against demand growth scenarios ``` ## Examples ### Example 1: Deflationary Analysis (ETH Post-Merge) ``` Pre-merge ETH inflation: ~4.3% annually (PoW issuance) Post-merge ETH: - PoS issuance: ~0.5% annually (varies with staking ratio) - EIP-1559 burn: ~0.5-2.0% annually (varies with network usage) - Net inflation: -0.5% to +0.3% (often deflationary during high usage) Assessment: ETH achieved "ultrasound money" narrative. Supply is structurally declining during high-activity periods. Positive feedback loop: more usage = more burn = less supply = higher price. Key risk: if L2s capture most activity, L1 burn decreases. ``` ### Example 2: Vesting Unlock Impact ``` Token: PROJECT_X Current price: $5.00 Circulating supply: 100M tokens ($500M MC) FDV: $2.5B (500M max supply) Daily volume: $20M Upcoming unlock: 50M tokens (VC round at $0.50/token) VC cost basis: $0.50 (10x profit at current price) Expected sell pressure: 50M * $5 * 60% sell probability = $150M Analysis: - $150M selling into $20M daily volume = 7.5 days of volume - Even with 20% market impact absorption, price pressure is severe - Historical pattern: similar unlocks cause 20-40% drawdowns - Strategy: reduce position 2 weeks before unlock, re-enter after selling pressure subsides (typically 2-4 weeks post-unlock) ``` ### Example 3: veToken Model Valuation ``` Protocol: Curve Finance Annual trading fees: $150M CRV staker share: 50% = $75M to veCRV holders Total veCRV: 500M CRV locked (average 3 years) veCRV market cap: $250M Staking yield: $75M / $250M = 30% real yield Additional value: bribe revenue ($100M+ annually on Votium) Total yield: ($75M + $100M) / $250M = 70% Assessment: High real yield suggests undervaluation OR high risk premium. Risks include governance attacks, competing AMMs, and regulatory uncertainty around the bribery mechanism. ``` ## Quality Gate Before making investment decisions based on tokenomics, verify: - [ ] Supply schedule data sourced from verified smart contracts, not just whitepaper claims - [ ] Vesting contracts are immutable or have transparent governance for changes - [ ] FDV calculation includes all possible supply sources (treasury, ecosystem fund, future emissions) - [ ] Burn mechanism is verifiable on-chain, not just claimed in documentation - [ ] Fee distribution is live and auditable, not a future "fee switch" promise - [ ] Inflation calculations account for all emission sources (staking rewards, liquidity mining, grants) - [ ] Governance centralization assessed — can a small group of holders control key decisions? - [ ] Comparable protocol valuations are on an apples-to-apples basis (same metrics, same chain, similar stage) - [ ] Token utility is genuine and not easily replicated without the token - [ ] Legal/regulatory status of fee distribution mechanism is considered (securities classification risk) ## Source & license This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code. - **Author:** [brainbytes-dev](https://github.com/brainbytes-dev) - **Source:** [brainbytes-dev/everything-claude-trading](https://github.com/brainbytes-dev/everything-claude-trading) - **License:** MIT Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above. ## Pricing - **Free** — Free ## Security capabilities Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access: - **Network access:** no - **Filesystem access:** no - **Shell / process execution:** no - **Environment & secrets:** no - **Dynamic code execution:** no *"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.* ## Versions - **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source. ## Links - Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-brainbytes-dev-everything-claude-trading-tokenomics - Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/brainbytes-dev - Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse --- Listed on AgentStack — the marketplace for AI agent skills and MCP servers. Every listing is security-reviewed. Creators keep 70%.