# Thematic Investment Research

> Comprehensive framework for conducting institutional-quality thematic investment research. Use when the user asks to: (1) Identify and validate investment themes, (2) Analyze thematic market opportunities and value chains, (3) Build a thematic stock universe and screen candidates, (4) Conduct company deep dives with thematic focus, (5) Value companies using theme-appropriate methodologies, (6) As…

- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-hhfinai-claude-equity-research-skills-thematic-investment-research`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [HHFinAi](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/hhfinai)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [Agent Skills](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/agent-skills)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** MIT
- **Upstream author:** [HHFinAi](https://github.com/HHFinAi)
- **Source:** https://github.com/HHFinAi/claude-equity-research-skills/tree/main/thematic-investment-research

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-hhfinai-claude-equity-research-skills-thematic-investment-research
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# Thematic Investment Research Framework

## Overview

Thematic investing identifies structural, long-duration trends reshaping economies and captures value across industries united by common secular drivers. This skill provides an eight-phase methodology from theme identification through portfolio implementation.

## Research Workflow

Execute phases sequentially, with gate reviews between major phases:

```
Phase I:   Theme Identification & Validation
Phase II:  Structural Analysis (TAM, Value Chain, Competition)
Phase III: Universe Construction & Screening
Phase IV:  Company Deep Dives
Phase V:   Valuation Architecture
Phase VI:  Risk Assessment
Phase VII: Report Construction
Phase VIII: Implementation & Monitoring
```

## Phase I: Theme Identification & Validation

### Theme Discovery Sources

Monitor systematically:
- **Primary**: Academic journals, patent databases, regulatory filings, conference proceedings, expert networks
- **Secondary**: Institutional research, consultancy reports, multilateral publications
- **Alternative**: Search trends, VC flows, job postings, satellite data

### DRIVER Validation Framework

Validate every theme against six criteria before proceeding:

| Criterion | Question |
|-----------|----------|
| **D**urability | Is this structural (demographics, physics, regulation) or temporary? |
| **R**elevance | Does it drive revenue growth, margin expansion, or re-rating? |
| **I**nvestability | Are there listed equities with genuine, liquid exposure? |
| **V**erifiability | Can thesis elements be empirically tested with leading indicators? |
| **E**xpansion | Is TAM growing through new use cases or geographies? |
| **R**ationality | Is opportunity not fully discounted in current valuations? |

### Theme Statement Construction

Structure: `[DRIVER] is causing [STRUCTURAL CHANGE], benefiting [BENEFICIARIES] over [TIME HORIZON], measured by [KEY METRICS].`

### Deliverable: Initial Scoping Document (2-3 pages)
- Theme statement and thesis points
- DRIVER validation assessment
- Hype cycle positioning
- Initial value chain sketch
- Key research questions and data sources
- Preliminary risks and thesis killers

**Gate Review**: Obtain approval before committing to full research.

→ For detailed validation frameworks: See `references/theme-validation.md`

## Phase II: Structural Analysis

### Market Sizing

Apply both approaches and triangulate:

**Top-Down**: Macro data → penetration rates → growth assumptions → industry forecasts
**Bottom-Up**: Customer segments → adoption curves → company validation → reconciliation

### Value Chain Mapping

For each layer (Upstream → Midstream → Downstream → Adjacent), analyze:
- Gross margin profile
- Competitive intensity
- Bargaining power
- Scale economics
- Capital intensity
- Technology risk

### Competitive Dynamics (Porter's Five Forces)
- Industry rivalry: concentration, differentiation, growth vs. capacity
- New entrants: capital, technology, regulatory barriers
- Supplier power: concentration, substitutes, forward integration threat
- Buyer power: concentration, price sensitivity, alternatives
- Substitutes: alternative technologies, price-performance, switching costs

### Regulatory Landscape
Document: current framework, pending legislation, subsidies/incentives, geographic variance, political durability

→ For detailed frameworks: See `references/structural-analysis.md`

## Phase III: Universe Construction

### Inclusion Criteria

| Criterion | Pure-Play | Diversified |
|-----------|-----------|-------------|
| Revenue Exposure | >75% | >10% |
| Strategic Commitment | High | Moderate |
| Growth Attribution | >50% | >30% |
| Daily Volume | >$5M | >$5M |

### Exposure Categories
- **Pure-Play** (>75%): Highest beta, often premium valuation
- **Significant** (25-75%): Meaningful leverage with diversification
- **Enabler** (10-25%): Indirect beneficiary, downside protection
- **Optionality** (<10%): Strategic upside, early-stage exposure

### Screening Factors

**Quantitative**: Market cap, ADV, revenue CAGR, margins, ROIC, leverage, valuation, momentum
**Qualitative**: Management quality, technology leadership, customer quality, IP strength, ESG, governance

### Universe Documentation Fields
Company ID | Thematic Classification | Fundamental Snapshot | Thematic Thesis | Research Status | Catalysts & Risks

→ For detailed criteria: See `references/universe-construction.md`

## Phase IV: Company Deep Dives

### Selection Criteria (10-20 companies)
- Highest thematic purity
- Attractive fundamental profile
- Strategic value chain importance
- Differentiated insight potential
- Sufficient liquidity

### Business Quality Assessment

**Competitive Moat**: Network effects, switching costs, intangibles, cost advantages, efficient scale
**Management**: Track record, incentive alignment, strategic vision, board composition

### Financial Analysis Framework

| Area | Key Metrics |
|------|-------------|
| Revenue | Segment breakdown, volume/price/mix, recurring %, customer concentration |
| Profitability | Gross margin drivers, operating leverage, R&D intensity, path to profit |
| Cash Flow | OCF conversion, working capital, capex (maintenance vs. growth), FCF margin |
| Balance Sheet | Leverage, liquidity, asset quality, return capacity |

### Thematic Leverage Assessment
- Revenue attribution (current % and projected trajectory)
- Strategic positioning and share dynamics
- Technology alignment and disruption risk
- Customer relationship quality
- Execution capability and track record

### Financial Model Requirements
- 5+ years historical, 5-10 years forecast
- Bottom-up revenue by segment with theme drivers
- Margin assumptions tied to scale/competition/mix
- Capital requirements: capex, working capital, M&A

### Scenario Framework

| Scenario | Theme Assumption | Probability |
|----------|------------------|-------------|
| Bull | Accelerates; company gains share | 20-25% |
| Base | Develops as expected; executes to plan | 50-60% |
| Bear | Disappoints/delays; loses position | 20-25% |
| Stress | Theme fails or thesis breaks | 5-10% |

→ For detailed templates: See `references/company-analysis.md`

## Phase V: Valuation Architecture

### Methodology Selection

| Method | Best For | Limitations |
|--------|----------|-------------|
| DCF/FCFF | Profitable, visible cash flows | Terminal value sensitivity |
| Reverse DCF | Expectation gap identification | Requires assumed WACC/margins |
| EV/Revenue | High-growth unprofitable | Ignores profitability |
| EV/EBITDA | Profitable comparisons | Capex/D&A differences |
| Sum-of-Parts | Diversified theme exposure | Segment data quality |
| rNPV | Pipeline/binary outcomes | Probability subjectivity |
| LTV/CAC | Subscription models | Requires cohort data |

### DCF Construction

**Revenue**: TAM trajectory → SAM → market share → pricing → cross-check
**Margins**: Material costs (learning curves) → pricing power → mix → target vs. mature peers
**WACC**: Beta (historical vs. implied), size premium, country risk, execution premium
**Terminal Value**: Extended forecast (10+ years), conservative perpetual growth, exit multiple cross-check

### Valuation Integration
1. Scenario-weighted DCF (probability × value per scenario)
2. Comparable multiples on forecast financials
3. Sum-of-parts where applicable
4. Triangulate to conviction range
5. Set target at weighted average or conservative bound

→ For detailed methodologies: See `references/valuation-methods.md`

## Phase VI: Risk Assessment

### Theme-Level Risks

| Risk | Description | Monitoring |
|------|-------------|------------|
| Timing | Longer development than anticipated | Adoption curves, milestones |
| Magnitude | TAM overestimated | Market size revisions, unit economics |
| Displacement | Alternative supersedes thesis | Patents, VC activity, breakthroughs |
| Regulatory | Policy undermines economics | Legislation, political shifts |
| Crowding | Consensus; valuations discount gains | Fund flows, ETF assets, multiples |

### Company-Level Risks
- Execution: Management track record, guidance accuracy
- Competitive: Win/loss tracking, customer surveys
- Financial: Cash runway, covenants, capital access
- Key Person: Management depth, succession
- Technology: Patent strength, R&D productivity
- ESG/Reputation: Ratings, controversy tracking

### Risk Scoring Matrix

|  | Low Impact (1) | Medium (2) | High (3) |
|--|----------------|------------|----------|
| Low Prob (1) | 1: Monitor | 2: Monitor | 3: Plan |
| Med Prob (2) | 2: Monitor | 4: Plan | 6: Mitigate |
| High Prob (3) | 3: Plan | 6: Mitigate | 9: Critical |

### Thesis Killer Definition
Must be: Specific & measurable, Observable, Pre-committed, Action-triggering

Examples:
- Theme: "EV battery costs rise for two consecutive quarters"
- Company: "Market share falls below 15% in core segment"
- Valuation: "Stock trades above 50x forward for 6+ months"

→ For detailed frameworks: See `references/risk-assessment.md`

## Phase VII: Report Construction

### Standard Structure

| Section | Length | Content |
|---------|--------|---------|
| Executive Summary | 1-2 pp | Thesis, findings, recommendations, risks, sizing |
| Theme Deep Dive | 5-10 pp | Drivers, TAM, value chain, competition, regulation |
| Company Profiles | 3-5 pp each | Overview, positioning, financials, valuation, risks |
| Risk Assessment | 2-3 pp | Theme/company risks, thesis killers, mitigants |
| Implementation | 1-2 pp | Portfolio construction, timing, monitoring, exits |
| Appendices | Variable | Models, universe, sources, glossary, disclosures |

### Quality Standards
- All claims sourced or derived from explicit assumptions
- Forecasts include sensitivity analysis
- Competing hypotheses acknowledged
- Logic chain explicit: drivers → recommendations
- Executive summary enables standalone decision-making

→ For detailed templates: See `references/report-structure.md`

## Phase VIII: Implementation & Monitoring

### Position Sizing

| Conviction | Size | Criteria | Review |
|------------|------|----------|--------|
| High | 4-6% | Deep dive complete; multiple valuation support; clear catalysts | Monthly |
| Medium | 2-4% | Fundamental work complete; timing/execution uncertainty | Bi-weekly |
| Speculative | 1-2% | High potential but significant risks; option-like payoff | Weekly |
| Watch List | 0% | Interesting but valuation/thesis not compelling | Quarterly |

Adjust for: volatility, correlation, downside scenario survival, portfolio constraints

### Entry Execution
- **Timing**: Catalyst proximity, technical context, liquidity, market regime
- **Staged Entry**: Initial (40-50%) → Confirmation (30-40%) → Catalyst (10-30%)

### Monitoring Framework

| Level | Indicators | Frequency |
|-------|------------|-----------|
| Theme | Adoption, pricing, competition, policy, sentiment | Monthly-Quarterly |
| Company | Earnings, KPIs, strategy, positioning, valuation | Post-earnings minimum |

### Exit Criteria

| Type | Trigger | Action |
|------|---------|--------|
| Target Achieved | Price at target; thesis reflected | Trim 50-100% |
| Thesis Broken | Assumption invalidated; killer triggered | Exit 100% |
| Better Opportunity | Superior risk/reward in theme | Rotate |
| Theme Maturation | Consensus; crowding elevated | Reduce systematically |
| Risk Management | Position exceeds limits | Trim to target |

### Review Cadence
- Position: After earnings; monthly minimum
- Theme: Quarterly
- Universe Refresh: Semi-annually
- Full Research Update: Annually

→ For detailed frameworks: See `references/implementation.md`

## Quick Reference: Checklists

Use checklists in `assets/` for standardized execution:
- `theme-validation-checklist.md`: DRIVER framework validation
- `company-deep-dive-checklist.md`: Fundamental analysis completion
- `risk-scoring-template.md`: Probability/impact assessment

## Research Sources Reference

**Data**: Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Refinitiv, PitchBook
**Industry**: Gartner, IDC, IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie, IQVIA, BloombergNEF
**Alternative**: Google Trends, SimilarWeb, Glassdoor, Orbital Insight, Thinknum

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [HHFinAi](https://github.com/HHFinAi)
- **Source:** [HHFinAi/claude-equity-research-skills](https://github.com/HHFinAi/claude-equity-research-skills)
- **License:** MIT

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-hhfinai-claude-equity-research-skills-thematic-investment-research
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/hhfinai
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

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