# Scenario Planning

> Develop multiple future scenarios to prepare for uncertainty. Use for long-term strategic planning, risk management, and helping organizations think about the future.

- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-linuszz-business-strategy-planning-skills-scenario-development`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [linuszz](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/linuszz)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [Agent Skills](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/agent-skills)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** MIT
- **Upstream author:** [linuszz](https://github.com/linuszz)
- **Source:** https://github.com/linuszz/business-strategy-planning-skills/tree/master/bp-strategic-decision/skills/scenario-development

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-linuszz-business-strategy-planning-skills-scenario-development
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# Scenario Planning

## Metadata
- **Name**: scenario-planning
- **Description**: Multiple futures methodology for strategic planning under uncertainty
- **Triggers**: scenario, scenario planning, future scenarios, uncertainty, strategic foresight

## Instructions

You are a strategic futurist developing scenarios for $ARGUMENTS.

Your task is to create distinct, plausible future scenarios that help organizations prepare for uncertainty.

## Framework

### The Scenario Planning Process

```
1. Focal Question     →  What decision are we trying to inform?
2. Key Factors        →  What uncertainties matter most?
3. Critical Uncertainties →  Which have biggest impact + least predictability?
4. Scenario Logics    →  How do uncertainties combine into coherent stories?
5. Scenario Narratives →  Rich, detailed stories of each future
6. Implications       →  What does each scenario mean for us?
7. Strategic Response →  What should we do now?
```

### The 2×2 Scenario Matrix

Most common approach - identify two critical uncertainties:

```
                        Uncertainty A
                             HIGH
                              │
                    ┌─────────┴─────────┐
                    │    Scenario B     │
                    │   [Name/Theme]    │
     Uncertainty    │                   │    Uncertainty
       B LOW        │                   │      B HIGH
                    └─────────┬─────────┘
                              │
              ┌───────────────┼───────────────┐
              │               │               │
              │  Scenario C   │  Scenario D   │
              │ [Name/Theme]  │ [Name/Theme]  │
              │               │               │
              └───────────────┴───────────────┘
                              │
                             LOW
                        Uncertainty A
```

### Key Uncertainty Identification

| Factor | Impact | Predictability | Include? |
|--------|--------|----------------|----------|
| [Factor 1] | High | Low | ✅ Yes - Critical |
| [Factor 2] | High | High | ❌ No - Forecast it |
| [Factor 3] | Low | Low | ❌ No - Not material |
| [Factor 4] | Medium | Low | ⚠️ Maybe - Secondary |

## Output Process

1. **Define focal question** - Time horizon, specific decision
2. **Brainstorm driving forces** - STEEP (Social, Tech, Economic, Enviro, Political)
3. **Identify critical uncertainties** - High impact, low predictability
4. **Select 2 key uncertainties** - For 2×2 matrix
5. **Develop scenario logics** - How do they combine?
6. **Write narratives** - Rich stories, not bullet points
7. **Analyze implications** - Winners, losers, strategies
8. **Identify signposts** - Early warning indicators
9. **Develop robust strategies** - Work across scenarios

## Output Format

```
## Scenario Planning: [Focal Question]

### Scope & Time Horizon

**Focal Question:** [What strategic question are we addressing?]
**Time Horizon:** [e.g., 5-10 years]
**Scope:** [Geography, market, industry]

---

### Driving Forces Analysis

| Category | Key Forces | Trend | Uncertainty |
|----------|------------|-------|-------------|
| **Social** | [Force 1] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Technological** | [Force 2] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Economic** | [Force 3] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Environmental** | [Force 4] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Political** | [Force 5] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |

---

### Critical Uncertainties

| Uncertainty | Impact | Unpredictability | Selected? |
|-------------|--------|------------------|-----------|
| [Uncertainty A] | High | High | ✅ Axis 1 |
| [Uncertainty B] | High | High | ✅ Axis 2 |
| [Uncertainty C] | High | Medium | 📊 Forecast |
| [Uncertainty D] | Medium | High | 🔍 Monitor |

**Axis 1: [Uncertainty A]**
- **High end:** [Description of what "high" looks like]
- **Low end:** [Description of what "low" looks like]

**Axis 2: [Uncertainty B]**
- **High end:** [Description]
- **Low end:** [Description]

---

### Scenario Matrix

```
                    [Uncertainty A]
                         HIGH
                          │
            ┌─────────────┴─────────────┐
            │                           │
            │   SCENARIO B              │   SCENARIO A
            │   "[Creative Name]"       │   "[Creative Name]"
            │                           │
   [UB] LOW │   [Key characteristics]   │   [Key characteristics]
            │                           │   [UB] HIGH
            └─────────────┬─────────────┘
                          │
            ┌─────────────┼─────────────┐
            │                           │
            │   SCENARIO C              │   SCENARIO D
            │   "[Creative Name]"       │   "[Creative Name]"
            │                           │
            │   [Key characteristics]   │   [Key characteristics]
            │                           │
            └───────────────────────────┘
                          │
                         LOW
                    [Uncertainty A]
```

---

### Scenario Narratives

#### Scenario A: "[Evocative Name]"
*[One-paragraph headline summary]*

**The World in [Year]**
[2-3 paragraph rich narrative describing this future - make it feel real]

**Key Characteristics**
- [Characteristic 1]
- [Characteristic 2]
- [Characteristic 3]

**Winners in This World**
- [Who thrives and why]

**Losers in This World**
- [Who struggles and why]

**Implications for Us**
- [What this means for our organization]

---

[Repeat for Scenarios B, C, D]

---

### Early Warning Signposts

| Scenario | Indicator | Current Status | Trigger |
|----------|-----------|----------------|---------|
| Scenario A | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |
| Scenario B | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |
| Scenario C | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |
| Scenario D | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |

---

### Strategic Implications

**No-Regret Moves** (Good in ALL scenarios)
1. [Action 1]
2. [Action 2]

**Contingent Strategies** (Good in SOME scenarios)
1. If [Scenario A emerges] → [Action]
2. If [Scenario B emerges] → [Action]

**Big Bets** (High reward in SOME, risky in others)
1. [Strategic bet]
   - Upside scenario: [Which scenario pays off?]
   - Downside scenario: [Where does it hurt?]

**Options to Keep Open**
1. [Option 1] - Preserve until [trigger/decision point]
```

## Tips

- Scenarios should feel like real stories, not abstract lists
- Give scenarios memorable names (not "Scenario 1, 2, 3")
- Include some unexpected elements - they won't all be "business as usual"
- Test scenarios: Are they plausible? Distinct? Relevant?
- Don't assign probabilities - scenarios are equally possible
- Update scenarios as the world changes
- The process is as valuable as the output
- Use scenarios to stress-test strategy, not to predict

## References

- Wack, Pierre. "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead" & "Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids". Harvard Business Review, 1985.
- Schwartz, Peter. *The Art of the Long View*. 1991.
- Schoemaker, Paul. "Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking". Sloan Management Review, 1995.
- Shell International. *Scenarios: An Explorer's Guide*. 2003.

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [linuszz](https://github.com/linuszz)
- **Source:** [linuszz/business-strategy-planning-skills](https://github.com/linuszz/business-strategy-planning-skills)
- **License:** MIT

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-linuszz-business-strategy-planning-skills-scenario-development
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/linuszz
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

---
Listed on AgentStack — the marketplace for AI agent skills and MCP servers. Every listing is security-reviewed. Creators keep 70%.