# Assumption Audit > Surfaces every unstated belief a strategy or business case depends on, grades the evidence behind each one, and stress-tests the ones that would break the plan if wrong — using a load-bearing-assumption framework, not a generic risk brainstorm. Use before any strategy, business case, or major decision is finalized or presented, whenever the user asks "what could go wrong," "are we sure about this… - **Type:** Skill - **Install:** `agentstack add skill-natan-mohart-24-strategy-skills-for-claude-assumption-audit` - **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior - **Seller:** [Natan-Mohart](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/natan-mohart) - **Installs:** 0 - **Category:** [Agent Skills](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/agent-skills) - **Latest version:** 0.1.0 - **License:** MIT - **Upstream author:** [Natan-Mohart](https://github.com/Natan-Mohart) - **Source:** https://github.com/Natan-Mohart/24-strategy-skills-for-claude/tree/main/skills/assumption-audit ## Install ```sh agentstack add skill-natan-mohart-24-strategy-skills-for-claude-assumption-audit ``` Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent. ## About # Assumption Audit ## When to use Use before finalizing or presenting any strategy, business case, or major decision — especially one that has been worked on for a while by a small group, since that's when unstated beliefs calcify into "known facts." Also use as a dedicated pre-mortem step before launch, and any time someone says "we all agree this will work" without anyone having named why. ## What it does Extracts the assumptions a plan silently rests on (not just the ones people are willing to say out loud), classifies each by evidence quality, and identifies which ones are load-bearing — meaning if they're wrong, the plan doesn't just underperform, it fails. It then designs the cheapest test that would falsify each load-bearing assumption before real capital is committed. ## Method 1. **Reverse-engineer assumptions from the plan, don't just ask people what they assume.** For every claim, number, or causal link in the strategy ("customers will pay $X," "channel Y will scale," "competitor Z won't respond"), ask "what would have to be true for this to hold?" — that's the assumption. 2. **Classify each assumption's evidence base**: proven (direct evidence from this business), analogous (evidence from a comparable situation elsewhere), or belief (no real evidence, just conviction or precedent-by-repetition). 3. **Score each assumption on two axes**: how much the plan's outcome depends on it (impact if wrong), and how confident the evidence base is (confidence). Plot on a 2x2 — high impact / low confidence is the danger zone. 4. **Distinguish load-bearing from decorative.** A load-bearing assumption, if false, breaks the plan's core logic (e.g., "the market will pay a premium for X"). A decorative one just changes a detail (e.g., "the launch color will be blue"). Focus scrutiny only on load-bearing ones — auditing every assumption equally dilutes attention from the ones that matter. 5. **Run a pre-mortem on each high-impact/low-confidence assumption**: "assume this failed — what evidence would we see, and could we have seen it earlier?" This surfaces failure modes faster than asking "what could go wrong" in the abstract. 6. **Design the cheapest falsification test for each danger-zone assumption** — a pilot, a customer interview round, a pricing test, a competitor-response scenario — sequenced by which one, if it fails, kills the plan earliest and cheapest. 7. **Write the "if we're wrong" trigger**: for each load-bearing assumption, name the specific signal that would tell the team it's wrong in time to change course, not after the capital is spent. ## Inputs - The strategy document, business case, or plan being audited - Any existing supporting data or research behind key claims - The team's actual timeline and capital already committed (affects which tests are still cheap) ## Output format A table of assumptions with evidence class, impact, confidence, and load-bearing flag; an impact×confidence 2x2 highlighting the danger zone; a sequenced list of falsification tests for danger-zone assumptions; a named early-warning trigger for each load-bearing assumption. ## Example A retailer's international expansion case rests on "brand awareness will transfer without local marketing spend." It's high-impact (the whole margin case assumes low customer acquisition cost) and low-confidence (belief, based on one adjacent market that had different distribution). It lands in the danger zone. The cheapest test: a small paid-media-free pilot in one city, measuring organic sign-up rate against the assumed number, before the full market entry budget is approved. ## Common pitfalls - Auditing assumptions people are already comfortable stating, while missing the ones baked so deep into the plan that no one thinks to name them. - Treating every assumption as equally worth testing instead of triaging to the load-bearing ones. - Running the audit after the decision is effectively already made, turning it into theater instead of a real gate. - Designing tests that are more expensive than just committing to the plan and watching what happens — defeats the purpose. ## Source & license This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code. - **Author:** [Natan-Mohart](https://github.com/Natan-Mohart) - **Source:** [Natan-Mohart/24-strategy-skills-for-claude](https://github.com/Natan-Mohart/24-strategy-skills-for-claude) - **License:** MIT Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above. ## Pricing - **Free** — Free ## Security capabilities Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access: - **Network access:** no - **Filesystem access:** no - **Shell / process execution:** no - **Environment & secrets:** no - **Dynamic code execution:** no *"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.* ## Versions - **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source. ## Links - Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-natan-mohart-24-strategy-skills-for-claude-assumption-audit - Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/natan-mohart - Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse --- Listed on AgentStack — the marketplace for AI agent skills and MCP servers. 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