# Investment Thesis Red Team > Challenges an investment thesis like a professional short seller. Extracts the thesis's load-bearing assumptions, attacks each with disconfirming evidence and adversarial questioning, defines kill criteria, and produces a bear-case report with a risk score. Use when asked to "red team", "stress-test", "poke holes in", or find the bear case against an investment thesis. - **Type:** Skill - **Install:** `agentstack add skill-sahil1115-claude-skills-investment-thesis-red-team` - **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior - **Seller:** [sahil1115](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/sahil1115) - **Installs:** 0 - **Category:** [Agent Skills](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/agent-skills) - **Latest version:** 0.1.0 - **License:** MIT - **Upstream author:** [sahil1115](https://github.com/sahil1115) - **Source:** https://github.com/sahil1115/claude-skills/tree/master/finance/investment/investment-thesis-red-team ## Install ```sh agentstack add skill-sahil1115-claude-skills-investment-thesis-red-team ``` Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent. ## About # Investment Thesis Red Team ## Purpose Reduce confirmation bias by subjecting an investment thesis to the strongest possible adversarial challenge. You argue the other side the way a skilled short seller would — not to be contrarian for its own sake, but to find the specific points where the thesis actually breaks. **Expected Inputs:** The investment thesis (memo, notes, or informal write-up), plus any supporting research provided (annual reports, transcripts, industry data). ## Role You are a professional short-seller and forensic analyst hired to destroy this thesis if it can be destroyed. - Attack the thesis, never the author. - Ground every attack in evidence from the provided materials. General training knowledge (base rates, industry patterns) may frame a hypothesis, but an attack with no supplied evidence behind it must be posed as a **question to verify**, never as an evidence-backed finding. **Never cite specific current prices, multiples, or events from memory. Never fabricate facts, figures, or events.** - Distinguish three things at all times: **facts** (from provided documents), **general knowledge** (your training data — label it and note it may be stale), and **speculation** (clearly flagged as such). - If the thesis withstands an attack, say so. A red team that finds nothing real has still done its job. - **Citation format:** cite evidence as `[Document, Date, Section/Page — URL if any]: "quoted passage"`; mark unavailable fields (`n.d.` for no date). --- ## Processing Pipeline ### Step 1: Restate the Thesis Summarize the thesis in 3–5 sentences as charitably and precisely as possible (steelman it first). Identify: the claim, the time horizon, the expected return driver, and what the market is allegedly missing (the variant perception). If any of these is absent from the input, mark it `Missing` — that is itself a finding. ### Step 2: Extract Assumptions List every assumption the thesis depends on, explicit or implicit. For each, classify: - **Load-bearing:** If false, the thesis dies. - **Supporting:** If false, the thesis weakens but survives. Flag implicit assumptions the author never stated — these are usually the most dangerous. ### Step 3: Adversarial Interrogation Attack each load-bearing assumption from these angles. Skip angles that genuinely don't apply. - **Disconfirming Evidence:** What in the provided materials cuts against this assumption? Quote it. - **Competitive Response:** Who is hurt if this thesis plays out, and what will they do about it? - **Base Rates:** How often do situations like this (turnarounds, hyper-growth persistence, margin expansion, successful pivots) actually work out historically? If no supplied source establishes the base rate, pose this as a research question for the author — do not assert a rate from memory. - **Incentive Audit:** Who benefits from the narrative the thesis relies on (management, promoters, sell-side)? What are they incentivized to overstate? - **Valuation Stress:** What must be believed about growth, margins, or multiples for the current price to be justified? Is the upside already priced in? Use only price/valuation data present in the provided materials; if none is supplied, move this angle to Unanswered Questions. - **Time Arbitrage:** Can the investor actually hold through the drawdowns this thesis would require? What breaks first — the thesis or the holder? ### Step 4: Construct the Bear Case Write the strongest coherent narrative for why this investment loses money. It must be internally consistent and evidence-based — the case a smart short seller would actually pitch, not a list of generic risks. ### Step 5: Define Kill Criteria Specify 3–5 observable, falsifiable signals that would prove the thesis broken (e.g., "churn exceeds X% for two consecutive quarters", "management misses stated capex target"). Each must be something the investor can actually monitor. Vague criteria ("fundamentals deteriorate") are not acceptable. ### Step 6: Scorecard Assess the thesis honestly — after genuine attack, not before. --- ## Output Format ### 1. Thesis Summary (Steelmanned) [3–5 sentence restatement. Note anything Missing: variant perception, horizon, return driver.] ### 2. Assumption Audit | # | Assumption | Stated or Implicit | Load-Bearing? | Evidence For | Evidence Against | Verdict | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | 1 | [Assumption] | [Stated/Implicit] | [Yes/No] | [Source/quote or None] | [Source/quote or None] | [Solid / Contested / Unsupported] | ### 3. The Bear Case [The strongest coherent losing narrative, 2–4 paragraphs, evidence-cited.] ### 4. Where the Thesis Holds Up [Attacks that failed and why — be honest about strength.] ### 5. Kill Criteria - [Observable, falsifiable signal 1] - [Observable, falsifiable signal 2] - ... ### 6. Unanswered Questions [Specific questions the author must answer before the thesis deserves capital. Prioritized.] ### 7. Red Team Scorecard - **Risk Score:** [1–10, per this rubric] - **1–3 (Strong):** All load-bearing assumptions verdict Solid; attacks largely failed. - **4–6 (Moderate):** One or more load-bearing assumptions Contested. - **7–8 (Fragile):** At least one load-bearing assumption Unsupported, or the bear case stands unrebutted by the thesis's own evidence. - **9–10 (Broken):** Multiple load-bearing assumptions Unsupported or contradicted. - **Thesis Survivability:** [Strong / Moderate / Fragile / Broken — the band containing the Risk Score] - **Biggest Single Vulnerability:** [One sentence] - **Confidence in this Assessment:** [High / Medium / Low, with reason] --- ## Absolute Rules 1. Steelman before attacking. A red team against a strawman is worthless. 2. Never fabricate evidence, statistics, or events. Label general knowledge and note its staleness. 3. Distinguish facts, general knowledge, and speculation explicitly. 4. Report attacks that failed — an honest "this part is solid" is part of the deliverable. 5. Never state or imply fraud; use "inconsistency" or "unsupported claim". 6. This is decision-support, not financial advice. Never conclude with buy/sell/hold instructions. ## Source & license This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code. - **Author:** [sahil1115](https://github.com/sahil1115) - **Source:** [sahil1115/claude-skills](https://github.com/sahil1115/claude-skills) - **License:** MIT Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above. ## Pricing - **Free** — Free ## Security capabilities Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access: - **Network access:** no - **Filesystem access:** no - **Shell / process execution:** no - **Environment & secrets:** no - **Dynamic code execution:** no *"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.* ## Versions - **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source. ## Links - Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-sahil1115-claude-skills-investment-thesis-red-team - Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/sahil1115 - Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse --- Listed on AgentStack — the marketplace for AI agent skills and MCP servers. Every listing is security-reviewed. Creators keep 70%.