# Earnings Trading

> Trade around earnings announcements for stocks. Use when positioning for earnings, trading post-earnings moves, or analyzing earnings-driven volatility.

- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-ske-labs-agent-trading-skills-earnings-trading`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [SKE-Labs](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/ske-labs)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [Finance & Payments](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/finance-and-payments)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** Apache-2.0
- **Upstream author:** [SKE-Labs](https://github.com/SKE-Labs)
- **Source:** https://github.com/SKE-Labs/agent-trading-skills/tree/main/skills/fundamental-analysis/earnings-trading

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-ske-labs-agent-trading-skills-earnings-trading
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# Earnings Trading

Trade volatility and price moves around quarterly earnings, where **surprise vs expectations** drives the reaction.

## Earnings Impact Matrix

| Scenario | Typical Reaction |
| --- | --- |
| Beat EPS + Beat Revenue + Raise Guidance | Strong rally (highest conviction long) |
| Beat EPS + Beat Revenue | Moderate pop |
| Meet expectations | Muted / slight dip |
| Miss EPS or Revenue | Drop |
| Miss + Lower Guidance | Strong sell-off (highest conviction short) |

## Whisper Number

The published consensus is the "official" expectation, but the **real expectation** (whisper number) determines the reaction.

- Stock runs up 15% into earnings = market expects a big beat regardless of published consensus
- "Beat consensus by 2% but stock drops" = whisper was much higher than consensus
- "Missed by 1% but stock rallies" = whisper was even lower than consensus

Estimate the whisper from pre-earnings price action and sentiment:
- Strong rally into earnings = whisper well above consensus
- Pre-earnings selling = whisper below consensus
- Flat = whisper roughly equals consensus

## Post-Earnings Drift

Stocks that surprise on earnings tend to continue drifting in the same direction -- one of the most documented market anomalies.

- Stocks beating EPS by >10% continue drifting same direction ~65% of the time for 60+ days
- Drift is strongest in the first 5 trading days
- Drift is significantly stronger when accompanied by raised guidance
- Entry: after initial reaction settles (1-2 hours post-release or next open)
- Use a trailing stop rather than fixed target

## Workflow

### 1. Get Consensus Estimates

```
get_fundamentals(ticker="AAPL")
```

Pull EPS estimates, revenue estimates, earnings date, and historical beat/miss pattern.

### 2. Research Expectations and Sentiment

```
get_financial_news(topic="AAPL earnings Q1 2026 expectations analyst", max_results=15)
```

Look for analyst notes, price target changes, pre-earnings sentiment shifts, and whisper number clues.

### 3. Analyze Call Transcript (Post-Release)

```
get_financial_news(topic="AAPL earnings call transcript summary management tone", max_results=10)
```

Score management tone:
- **Confident**: Specific numbers, guidance raised, "record revenue", "ahead of schedule"
- **Cautious**: Hedging, qualifiers, "headwinds", "cautious outlook", "monitoring closely"
- **Evasive**: Deflecting analyst questions, pivoting to unrelated metrics -- most bearish signal

Key signal: tone shift vs prior quarter. "Confident" to "Cautious" is a red flag even if they beat.

### 4. Score and Decide

Rate on three dimensions: EPS (beat/meet/miss), Revenue (beat/meet/miss), Guidance (raised/maintained/lowered). Combine with management tone and whisper number assessment for the final signal.

## Key Rules

- NEVER hold full position size through earnings -- reduce by at least 50%
- NEVER ignore the whisper number -- most "irrational" post-earnings moves are explained by whisper vs consensus gap
- NEVER rush entry after release -- wait for initial volatility to settle (1-2 hours minimum for large caps)
- "Buy the rumor, sell the news" applies frequently: stocks run up into expected good earnings, then sell on the actual news even on a beat
- If analysts press hard on a topic during Q&A and management deflects, that area is likely weak
- Best post-earnings drift setups: large EPS beat (>10%) + raised guidance + confident management tone

## Related Skills

- **sentiment-analysis** -- Whisper number estimation via sentiment
- **economic-calendar-trading** -- Macro events near earnings amplify volatility

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [SKE-Labs](https://github.com/SKE-Labs)
- **Source:** [SKE-Labs/agent-trading-skills](https://github.com/SKE-Labs/agent-trading-skills)
- **License:** Apache-2.0

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-ske-labs-agent-trading-skills-earnings-trading
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/ske-labs
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

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