# Probability Momentum

> Use when a Polymarket outcome price and filled volume are accelerating in the same direction.

- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-superior-trade-superior-skills-probability-momentum`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [Superior-Trade](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/superior-trade)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [AI & ML](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/ai-and-ml)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** MIT
- **Upstream author:** [Superior-Trade](https://github.com/Superior-Trade)
- **Source:** https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-momentum

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-superior-trade-superior-skills-probability-momentum
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# Strategy: Polymarket · Probability Momentum

## When to use

Use this when someone asks for momentum, trend following, breakout, follow-the-crowd behavior, fast-moving crypto milestones, or rapid probability acceleration.

## What the agent should look for

- Exact market slug from `POST /v3/markets/search`.
- `backtestSupported: true`.
- Sufficient filled-trade history for the requested lookback window.
- Rising probability on last-trade filled ticks.
- Elevated fill counts or larger notional during the move.
- Market not too close to resolution unless user explicitly accepts expiry risk.

## Backtest fit with filled data

Good fit for this archetype. Filled `TradeTick` history can validate whether momentum would have produced fill-driven entries, exits, and directional exposure.

Limit: filled-trade backtests do not prove maker queue position, maker rebates, or order-book depth. Treat this as taker-style behavior evidence, not certainty.

## Strategy logic

Enter YES when recent probability rises more than a threshold over `lookback_ticks`. Exit when `exit_after_ticks` is reached, or when momentum stalls if an exit condition is included.

## Nautilus strategy shape

- `subscribe_trade_ticks(instrument_id)` to stream TradeTicks.
- Use `on_trade_tick` as the main event handler.
- Submit market or conservative IOC orders.
- Track open position and fill state in `on_order_filled`.

## Example strategyConfig

```json
{
  "lookback_ticks": 5,
  "momentum_threshold": 0.02,
  "order_size": 10,
  "exit_after_ticks": 25,
  "max_entries": 3
}
```

## Iteration knobs

| Knob | Effect |
|---|---|
| `lookback_ticks` | Larger values reduce noise; smaller values react faster. |
| `momentum_threshold` | Higher values reduce frequency and require stronger momentum. |
| `order_size` | Larger values increase PnL sensitivity and liquidity exposure. |
| `exit_after_ticks` | Shorter values trim quickly; longer values hold trend. |
| `max_entries` | Caps repeated entries in choppy markets. |

## Failure modes

1. One large fill can produce a false momentum signal.
2. Thin trades can overstate available liquidity.
3. Late-resolution markets can reverse from mark-to-market gains to a 0/1 close.
4. Stale fills can make momentum look cleaner than it was live.

## User-facing framing

"This is a probability momentum strategy: it buys when fills and last-trade probability move together in one direction. It is backtestable with filled TradeTicks, but it does not confirm maker queue priority or spread capture."

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [Superior-Trade](https://github.com/Superior-Trade)
- **Source:** [Superior-Trade/superior-skills](https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills)
- **License:** MIT

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-superior-trade-superior-skills-probability-momentum
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/superior-trade
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

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