# Research Decision

> >-

- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-v0lka-skills-research-decision`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [v0lka](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/v0lka)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [Agent Skills](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/agent-skills)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** MIT
- **Upstream author:** [v0lka](https://github.com/v0lka)
- **Source:** https://github.com/v0lka/skills/tree/main/engineering/research-decision

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-v0lka-skills-research-decision
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# Iteration Decision Support

Analyze the state of a completed hypothesis experiment and the overall
hypothesis graph to recommend the next action.

## Context

After each experiment, the researcher makes one of four decisions:

- **Continue** — hypothesis confirmed, deepen this direction, formulate
  child hypotheses.
- **Pivot** — result points to a more promising direction different from
  the current one. Formulate new hypotheses, change vector.
- **Kill** — branch is a dead end (refuted, unstable, impractical). Prune
  the branch in the graph, document the reason.
- **Fork** — competing approaches discovered that are worth investigating
  in parallel. Create multiple child hypotheses for simultaneous exploration.

The decision is the researcher's, but this skill provides structured analysis
and a recommendation to support it.

## Procedure

### Step 1 — Read current state

Gather the following information:

1. **The completed hypothesis card** — read `hypotheses/H-NNN.md` for the
   statement, verification criterion, result, and status.
2. **The hypothesis graph** — read `hypotheses/graph.md` to understand the
   full DAG: which branches are alive, which are pruned, where pivots
   occurred, and what the current "front line" looks like.
3. **The research brief** — read `brief.md` for the research question,
   success criteria, scope boundaries, known constraints, and time budget.
4. **Sibling/related hypotheses** — if the completed hypothesis is part of
   a fork, read its sibling hypotheses to compare results.

### Step 2 — Analyze the result

Evaluate the experiment outcome against multiple dimensions:

#### 2a. Verification criterion alignment

- Was the verification criterion met, partially met, or not met?
- Is the result definitive or are there caveats?
- If inconclusive: is the inconclusiveness due to the approach, the
  timebox, or an external factor?

#### 2b. Research question proximity

- How much closer does this result bring us to answering the research
  question from the brief?
- Does the result open new pathways toward the answer?
- Does the result suggest the research question itself needs refinement?

#### 2c. Resource and timebox assessment

- How much of the overall research time budget has been consumed?
- How many active branches remain in the graph?
- Is there sufficient budget to pursue new directions, or should the
  research begin converging?

#### 2d. Surprise and serendipity

- Did the experiment reveal unexpected findings outside the original scope?
- Are there serendipitous discoveries worth pursuing (potential fork)?

### Step 3 — Generate recommendation

Based on the analysis, recommend one of the four decisions with
justification:

#### Continue — recommend when:
- The hypothesis was confirmed.
- The result directly advances the research question.
- There are clear, specific follow-up questions.
- Budget allows further depth.

When recommending Continue, propose 1–3 specific child hypotheses with
draft statements and verification criteria.

#### Pivot — recommend when:
- The result (positive or negative) reveals a more promising direction.
- The current branch has diminishing returns.
- A related but different approach looks more viable.

When recommending Pivot, clearly articulate:
- What the new direction is and why it is more promising.
- What is being left behind and why.
- Proposed hypothesis(es) for the new direction.

#### Kill — recommend when:
- The hypothesis was definitively refuted.
- The timebox expired without meaningful progress.
- The branch is technically viable but impractical (too complex, too slow,
  too fragile for the intended use case).
- Continuing this branch will not help answer the research question.

When recommending Kill, document:
- The specific reason for termination.
- Any useful knowledge gained that should be preserved.
- Whether this dead end has implications for other branches.

#### Fork — recommend when:
- Two or more competing approaches are identified.
- It is unclear which approach is superior without trying both.
- Resources are available for parallel investigation.

When recommending Fork, propose:
- The competing hypotheses (2–3 maximum).
- Individual timeboxes for each.
- Selection criteria: how will we choose the winner (or discard both)?

### Step 4 — Present to the researcher

Present the analysis and recommendation in a structured format:

1. **Result summary**: one paragraph on what the experiment showed.
2. **Graph context**: where this result fits in the overall research.
3. **Recommendation**: the decision (Continue / Pivot / Kill / Fork) with
   reasoning.
4. **Proposed next hypotheses**: if applicable, draft cards for the next
   hypotheses.
5. **Risks and alternatives**: what could go wrong with the recommendation,
   and what the alternative decision would be.

### Step 5 — Execute the decision

Once the researcher confirms (or modifies) the decision:

1. Update the completed hypothesis card with the decision in the
   "Decision" field.
2. If the decision is **Continue** or **Fork**: invoke `research-hypothesis`
   to create the new child hypothesis cards.
3. If the decision is **Pivot**: invoke `research-hypothesis` to create new
   hypotheses. Mark the abandoned branch hypotheses as `cancelled` if they
   are still open.
4. If the decision is **Kill**: ensure the hypothesis status is `refuted`
   or `cancelled` as appropriate. No new hypotheses are created on this
   branch.

## Decision Heuristics

Some rules of thumb encoded in the methodology:

- **Timebox expiry + inconclusive = kill or pivot**, not extension. The
  methodology explicitly discourages extending timeboxes.
- **Budget pressure → convergence**: when more than ~70% of the overall
  research budget is consumed, prefer Continue (deepening) over Fork
  (broadening). Begin thinking about synthesis.
- **Fork is the exception**: parallel investigation is allowed but should
  be justified. The default is sequential hypothesis testing.
- **Preserve knowledge from dead ends**: killed branches still produced
  knowledge. Ensure the "what we learned" section of the card is thorough.

## Relation to Other Skills

- Invoked after `research-experiment` records a result.
- Creates new hypotheses via `research-hypothesis`.
- Feeds into `research-synthesis` when the research question is answered
  or budget is exhausted (triggers Phase 3).
- `research-status` provides the graph overview that informs decisions.

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [v0lka](https://github.com/v0lka)
- **Source:** [v0lka/skills](https://github.com/v0lka/skills)
- **License:** MIT

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-v0lka-skills-research-decision
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/v0lka
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

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