# Market Research > Use this skill when the user needs to size a market, analyze competitors, calculate TAM/SAM/SOM, or validate a business idea. Covers market sizing, competitive analysis frameworks, napkin math, and bottom-up revenue estimation. - **Type:** Skill - **Install:** `agentstack add skill-whawkinsiv-solo-founder-skills-market-research` - **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior - **Seller:** [whawkinsiv](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/whawkinsiv) - **Installs:** 0 - **Category:** [Agent Skills](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/agent-skills) - **Latest version:** 0.1.0 - **License:** MIT - **Upstream author:** [whawkinsiv](https://github.com/whawkinsiv) - **Source:** https://github.com/whawkinsiv/solo-founder-skills/tree/main/skills/market-research ## Install ```sh agentstack add skill-whawkinsiv-solo-founder-skills-market-research ``` Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent. ## About # Market Research & Competitive Analysis Markets matter more than ideas. This skill helps you evaluate whether your market is worth entering — and how to validate demand before you build. ## Core Principles - A mediocre product in a great market beats a brilliant product in a dead one. - All market sizing is wrong. The goal is order-of-magnitude clarity, not decimal precision. - Competitors are evidence that demand exists. Zero competitors is a warning sign, not an advantage. - The best solo-founder markets have high pain, fragmented incumbents, and willingness to pay — not the biggest TAM. - Research is only useful if it changes a decision. Every analysis should end with a clear recommendation. --- ## Early Validation: Before You Build Anything ### Finding Your First 10 People to Talk To Before doing market sizing, validate that real people have this problem. **Method 1: Cold Outreach (Fastest — 1-2 weeks)** - LinkedIn: Search for your ICP's job title → send connection request with a note - Twitter/X: Search hashtags related to the problem → DM active posters - Reddit: Find niche subreddits → comment helpfully → DM engaged users - Email: Find company websites of target customers → reach out to founders/decision-makers **Cold outreach template:** ``` Subject: Quick question about [problem area] Hi [Name], I'm researching how [ICP role] handles [specific problem]. I noticed you [signal that they have this problem — e.g., posted about it, work in relevant role, use a competing tool]. Would you be open to a 15-minute call this week? I'm not selling anything — just trying to understand the problem better before I build a solution. Happy to share what I learn from the research as a thank you. [Your name] ``` **Method 2: Communities (Higher quality — 2-4 weeks)** - Indie Hackers: Search for threads where your ICP discusses the problem - Facebook Groups: Search for niche groups (e.g., "Freelance Copywriters", "SaaS Founders") - Slack communities: Industry-specific channels, FounderPath, etc. - Discord: More engaged than most channels for technical audiences **Method 3: Landing Page Test (Lowest effort — 2-3 weeks)** 1. Build a simple landing page describing the problem you solve (use Lovable or Claude Code) 2. Drive 100-200 visits via communities, social posts, or $100-200 in ads 3. Measure: Signups / Visitors = interest rate 4. Below 5% signup rate → positioning is unclear or demand is weak ### After 5 Conversations, Ask Yourself - Did 3+ people independently describe the same pain? → Demand likely real - Would they pay? Did anyone name a price unprompted? → Market likely exists - Do they already use 2+ workarounds? → Problem is acute - Did you learn something that surprised you? → Explore it in conversations 6-10 **Decision threshold:** - 3+ people confirm the problem AND 2+ say they'd pay → proceed to market sizing and build - Mixed signals after 10 conversations → either pivot your hypothesis or try a different ICP segment - Nobody cares after 10 conversations → this isn't a real problem. Pick a different idea. ### Avoiding Analysis Paralysis 5 conversations reveal 80% of what you need to know. The other 20% you learn by building and shipping. Don't wait for certainty — it never comes. --- ## Market Sizing (Napkin Math That Matters) **Tell AI:** ``` Help me size the market for my SaaS idea: - Product: [what it does] - Target customer: [who — job title, company size, industry] - Problem it solves: [the pain point] Do a bottom-up calculation: 1. Estimate how many potential buyers exist (use industry data, LinkedIn job title counts) 2. Multiply by a realistic price point for this type of tool 3. Apply a 1-3% capture rate for a new entrant 4. Tell me: does this math support a solo-founder business ($200K-500K ARR)? ``` ### Bottom-Up (The Only Method That Matters for Solo Founders) ``` 1. How many potential buyers exist? [Industry size] × [% that match your ICP] Example: 500,000 US marketing agencies × 12% that are 5-20 person = 60,000 2. What will each pay annually? [Price point] × [12 months] Example: $49/month × 12 = $588/year 3. Realistic addressable market: [Buyers] × [Annual price] × [Capture rate] Example: 60,000 × $588 × 2% = $705,600/year achievable 4. Sanity check: Does that number fund the business you want? Solo founder needs $200K-$500K ARR to replace income + reinvest. If max realistic capture is $100K, the market is too small. ``` ### Top-Down (Sanity Check Only) ``` TAM = Total market revenue (all possible buyers globally) SAM = Segment you can serve (geography, vertical, size) SOM = What you can realistically capture in 3 years Rule of thumb: SOM is 1-5% of SAM for a new entrant. If SOM doesn't fund your business, stop here. ``` ### Volume Estimation Sources - Government data: Census Bureau, BLS (industry counts) - Industry reports: IBISWorld, Statista (skim free summaries) - LinkedIn: Search ICP job titles → count results - Job boards: Volume of relevant roles = proxy for market size - Competitor traffic: SimilarWeb free tier → estimate active users - Subreddits/communities: Member counts = demand signal --- ## Competitive Analysis **Tell AI:** ``` Analyze the competitive landscape for my product: - My product: [what it does] - My target customer: [who] - Known competitors: [list any you know, or "not sure"] For each competitor, find: pricing, target audience, strengths, weaknesses (check G2/Capterra reviews for complaints). Then build a 2x2 positioning matrix showing where I could differentiate. ``` ### Substitute Mapping Every product competes with four types: 1. **Direct competitors** — Same solution, same audience (Basecamp vs. Asana) 2. **Indirect competitors** — Different solution, same problem (spreadsheets vs. project tool) 3. **DIY / manual process** — They do it by hand (Post-its, email threads) 4. **Do nothing** — They tolerate the pain (this is your real enemy) ### Competitor Research Template For each direct competitor: ``` ## [Competitor Name] **What they do**: One sentence. **Target audience**: Who they sell to. **Pricing**: Tiers and price points. **Strengths**: 2-3 things they do well. **Weaknesses**: 2-3 gaps, complaints, or underserved areas. **Positioning**: Homepage headline — how they describe themselves. **Traffic/Scale**: Monthly visits (SimilarWeb), review count (G2/Capterra). ### Where You Win What specific thing will you do 10x better? ``` ### Research Sources - **Pricing**: Visit their pricing page. Screenshot it. - **Positioning**: Read their homepage headline and subheadline. - **Weaknesses**: G2, Capterra, Product Hunt, Reddit threads, Twitter complaints. - **Traffic**: SimilarWeb (free tier). - **Features**: Their docs/changelog reveal what they've built and haven't. - **Hiring**: Job postings reveal strategic direction. ### Competitive Positioning Matrix Build a 2×2 matrix with the two dimensions your ICP cares most about: ``` Example axes: X: Simple ←————→ Powerful Y: Cheap ←————→ Premium Plot competitors on this grid. Find the empty quadrant. That's your positioning opportunity. ``` --- ## Solo-Founder Market Fit Assessment Score each criterion 1-5. Minimum viable total: 25/40. | Criterion | Score | Notes | |-----------|-------|-------| | **Pain intensity** — Hair-on-fire problem? | /5 | 5 = actively searching for a fix | | **Willingness to pay** — Already pay for substitutes? | /5 | 5 = pay $50+/mo for something worse | | **Reachable audience** — Can you find and contact them? | /5 | 5 = concentrated in known communities | | **Fragmented competition** — No dominant monopoly? | /5 | 5 = many small players, no clear winner | | **Small enough for solo** — Can one person serve this? | /5 | 5 = low support burden, self-serve viable | | **Recurring need** — Will they use it monthly? | /5 | 5 = daily/weekly active use | | **Your unfair advantage** — Domain expertise or distribution? | /5 | 5 = deep insider knowledge | | **Technical feasibility** — Build core in 4-8 weeks? | /5 | 5 = well-understood, no R&D needed | **Scoring:** - 35-40: Exceptional fit. Move fast. - 25-34: Viable. Validate the weak spots. - Below 25: Reconsider. Weak markets kill good products. --- ## Distribution Vector Analysis | Channel | Cost to Test | Time to Signal | Scalable? | |---------|-------------|----------------|-----------| | Cold outreach | $0 (time only) | 2-4 weeks | Somewhat | | Communities | $0 (time only) | 1-3 months | Somewhat | | Paid search | $200-500 | 1-2 weeks | Yes (if CAC works) | | SEO / Content | $0 (time only) | 3-6 months | Yes | | Directories | $0-200 | 1-2 months | Yes (passive) | | Partnerships | $0 (time only) | 2-6 months | Yes | **Rule:** Pick the ONE channel you can test in <30 days with <$500. Prove it works before diversifying. --- ## Buyer Leverage Check Confirm your ICP can actually buy: 1. **Controls budget?** If they need 3 levels of approval, you lose. 2. **Below "just expense it" threshold?** ($50-100/mo for individuals, $500-1K for teams) 3. **Can adopt without IT?** Self-serve SaaS with optional SSO wins. 4. **Low switching cost?** If migration takes weeks, adoption stalls. 5. **One person gets value alone?** Network effects help growth but hurt initial adoption. All five should be "yes" for a solo-founder SaaS. --- ## Common Mistakes | Mistake | Fix | |---------|-----| | Analysis paralysis — researching for months instead of shipping | 5 conversations + napkin math. Then build. | | Inflating TAM to feel good ("it's a $10B market!") | Bottom-up only. TAM is a vanity metric for solo founders. | | Ignoring "do nothing" as a competitor | Most of your market tolerates the pain. Your real competition is inertia. | | Researching the wrong ICP | Talk to the person who writes the check, not the person who has the problem. | | Only talking to people who confirm your idea | Seek disconfirming evidence. Ask "why wouldn't you use this?" | | Skipping competitive pricing research | Visit every competitor's pricing page. Screenshot them. This is your anchor. | --- ## Related Skills - **validate** — Test demand after market research confirms opportunity - **customer-research** — Go deeper with customer interviews and personas - **prioritize** — Use market research to prioritize what to build - **pricing** — Use competitive analysis to inform pricing decisions ## Source & license This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code. - **Author:** [whawkinsiv](https://github.com/whawkinsiv) - **Source:** [whawkinsiv/solo-founder-skills](https://github.com/whawkinsiv/solo-founder-skills) - **License:** MIT Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above. ## Pricing - **Free** — Free ## Security capabilities Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access: - **Network access:** no - **Filesystem access:** no - **Shell / process execution:** no - **Environment & secrets:** no - **Dynamic code execution:** no *"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.* ## Versions - **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source. ## Links - Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-whawkinsiv-solo-founder-skills-market-research - Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/whawkinsiv - Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse --- Listed on AgentStack — the marketplace for AI agent skills and MCP servers. Every listing is security-reviewed. Creators keep 70%.