# Marks Cycles

> Use when evaluating markets through Howard Marks-style second-level thinking, credit cycles, risk premiums, market psychology, and defensive versus aggressive posture.

- **Type:** Skill
- **Install:** `agentstack add skill-xuboyuebobb-investorskills-marks-cycles`
- **Verified:** Yes — security-reviewed for prompt injection and unsafe behavior
- **Seller:** [xuboyuebobb](https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/xuboyuebobb)
- **Installs:** 0
- **Category:** [Agent Skills](https://agentstack.voostack.com/c/agent-skills)
- **Latest version:** 0.1.0
- **License:** MIT
- **Upstream author:** [xuboyuebobb](https://github.com/xuboyuebobb)
- **Source:** https://github.com/xuboyuebobb/investorskills/tree/main/skills/marks-cycles
- **Website:** https://questflow.ai

## Install

```sh
agentstack add skill-xuboyuebobb-investorskills-marks-cycles
```

Requires the [AgentStack CLI](https://agentstack.voostack.com/docs/cli). Works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible agent.

## About

# Howard Marks Cycles

Use this skill to apply Howard Marks-style cycle and risk judgment: identify where markets are in the cycle, compare price to value and risk premium, and decide whether to be defensive or aggressive.

## When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

- Market cycle diagnosis
- Credit spread and risk premium review
- Second-level thinking on a crowded view
- Defensive or aggressive portfolio posture
- Whether risk is being rewarded or ignored

Trigger phrases include `Howard Marks`, `cycle`, `second-level thinking`, `risk premium`, `credit cycle`, `defensive`, `aggressive`, and `market psychology`.

## Do Not Use When

- The user needs a precise technical entry only.
- There is no market, valuation, credit, or sentiment context.
- The user asks for a prediction without uncertainty ranges.
- The setup requires leverage or forced timing.

## Inputs Needed

- Asset class or market
- Valuation, yield, spread, or risk premium data
- Credit conditions, liquidity, default risk, and refinancing risk if relevant
- Sentiment, positioning, and consensus view
- Portfolio exposure and drawdown tolerance if posture is requested

## Process

1. Identify the cycle: early, mid, late, stressed, panic, recovery.
2. Separate first-level view from second-level view.
3. Compare price, value, and risk premium.
4. Assess market psychology: fear, greed, complacency, forced selling.
5. Decide posture: defensive, neutral, opportunistic, or aggressive.
6. Size by margin for error, not confidence alone.

## Output Format

```md
# Marks Cycle View: [Market]

## Verdict
Defensive / Neutral / Opportunistic / Aggressive / Stand Down

## Cycle Position

## First-Level vs Second-Level View

## Risk Premium

## Market Psychology

## Portfolio Posture

## What Would Change The View

## Missing Data
```

## Guardrails

- Do not forecast with false precision.
- Do not treat high returns as low risk.
- Do not become aggressive when risk is underpriced.
- Do not become paralyzed during panic if compensation is attractive.
- Always ask what is already in the price.

## Questflow Use

In Questflow, this skill is best used as a portfolio posture and cycle-risk module across Funds, asset classes, and market regimes.

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [xuboyuebobb](https://github.com/xuboyuebobb)
- **Source:** [xuboyuebobb/investorskills](https://github.com/xuboyuebobb/investorskills)
- **License:** MIT
- **Homepage:** https://questflow.ai

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.

## Pricing

- **Free** — Free

## Security capabilities

Automated source analysis of v0.1.0 — what this tool can access:

- **Network access:** no
- **Filesystem access:** no
- **Shell / process execution:** no
- **Environment & secrets:** no
- **Dynamic code execution:** no

*"Yes" means the capability is present in the source — more access means more to trust, not that it is unsafe.*


## Versions

- **0.1.0** — security scan: passed — Imported from the upstream source.

## Links

- Listing page: https://agentstack.voostack.com/l/skill-xuboyuebobb-investorskills-marks-cycles
- Seller: https://agentstack.voostack.com/s/xuboyuebobb
- Browse the marketplace: https://agentstack.voostack.com/browse

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