Awesome Prediction Markets

Awesome Prediction Markets [](https://awesome.re)

> APIs, datasets, tools, and research for building on prediction markets. For developers and AI agents, not dashboards.

Prediction markets are the best real-time source of calibrated probability for world events. This list focuses on what you need to build with that data — APIs to fetch it, tools to process it, datasets to train on, and research to understand it.

Pull requests welcome. See [contributing guidelines](#contributing).

[](https://colab.research.google.com/github/spfunctions/awesome-prediction-markets/blob/main/simplefunctions_quickstart.ipynb) — Interactive notebook: world state, market search, trade ideas, contagion detection, and more.

Quick Start — Get a Price in 30 Seconds

# Kalshi — what are the markets?
curl -s "https://trading-api.kalshi.co/trade-api/v2/markets?limit=3" | jq '.markets[] | {title, yes_ask, volume}'

# Polymarket — current markets
curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/markets?limit=3" | jq '.[] | {question, tokens[0].price}'

# SimpleFunctions — scan any topic, no auth
curl -s "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/scan?q=oil"

# SimpleFunctions — what changed in the last hour
curl -s "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/changes"

API Comparison

Which platform fits your use case?

| | Kalshi | Polymarket | Metaculus | Manifold | |---|---|---|---|---| | Auth for market data | No | No | No | No | | Auth for trading | API key + RSA | Wallet signature | N/A | API key | | WebSocket | Yes | Yes | No | No | | Rate limit | 100/min | 500/min | Undocumented | 1000/min | | Historical data | Settlement CSV | Subgraph + API | Export | Full API | | Real money | Yes (CFTC) | Yes (USDC) | No | Sweepstakes | | Market creation | No (Kalshi only) | No (UMA only) | Community | Anyone | | Best for | US regulated, macro | Crypto-native, global | Research, calibration | Experimentation |

Contents

• [Exchanges & Platforms](#exchanges--platforms)
• [APIs & SDKs](#apis--sdks)
• [MCP Servers](#mcp-servers)
• [CLI Tools](#cli-tools)
• [Agent Frameworks & Examples](#agent-frameworks--examples)
• [Data & Datasets](#data--datasets)
• [Aggregators & Cross-Venue](#aggregators--cross-venue)
• [Economic & Macro Data](#economic--macro-data)
• [Analytics & Research Tools](#analytics--research-tools)
• [Tutorials & Guides](#tutorials--guides)
• [Strategy & Market Structure](#strategy--market-structure)
• [Selected Reading](#selected-reading)
• [Academic Papers](#academic-papers)
• [Project Ideas](#project-ideas)
• [Community](#community)

---

Exchanges & Platforms

Active prediction market platforms with programmatic access.

| Platform | API | Markets | Settlement | |----------|-----|---------|------------| | Kalshi | REST + WebSocket | Economics, politics, weather, science | CFTC-regulated, USD | | Polymarket | CLOB API | Politics, crypto, global events | Polygon, USDC | | Metaculus | API | Science, technology, geopolitics | Reputation-based | | Manifold Markets | API | Anything (user-created) | Play money + sweepstakes | | PredictIt | API | US politics | CFTC no-action letter, USD | | Smarkets | API | Politics, sports, current affairs | UK-regulated, GBP | | Futuur | API | Global events | Play money + real money | | Insight Prediction | API | Global events | Crypto |

APIs & SDKs

Multi-Venue

• SimpleFunctions API — Unified REST API for Kalshi + Polymarket. Thesis management, edge detection, what-if scenarios, track record feedback. Free during beta.
• SimpleFunctions CLI — 42 terminal commands for prediction market intelligence. Scan, watch, trade, agent mode.

Kalshi

• Kalshi Official API — REST + WebSocket. Requires account for trading endpoints; market data is public.
• kalshi-python — Official Python client.
• KalshiClientsGo — Official Go client.
• kalgon — Unofficial Python SDK with order management.

Polymarket

• Polymarket CLOB API — Central limit order book. REST + WebSocket.
• py-clob-client — Official Python client for the CLOB.
• clob-client — Official TypeScript client.
• polymarket-rs — Rust SDK.

Metaculus

• Metaculus API — Public question and forecast data.
• metaculusr — R client for Metaculus data.

Manifold

• Manifold API — Full market CRUD, betting, comments.
• manifoldpy — Python client.
• PyManifold — Alternative Python client.

MCP Servers

Connect LLMs to prediction market data via the Model Context Protocol.

• SimpleFunctions MCP — 25 tools: thesis management, edge detection, market search, trading, what-if scenarios. Works with Claude Code, Cursor, Windsurf.

``bash claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp ``

• prediction-market-mcp-example — Minimal 50-line MCP server for learning. Search markets, get context, price changes.
• us-gov-open-data-mcp — 300+ tools across 40+ U.S. government APIs. FRED, Treasury, BLS, Congress, FDA, EPA, SEC. Selective module loading.
• fred-mcp-server — FRED economic data for Claude/Cursor.
• mcp-fredapi — FRED API with series search and category browsing.
• imf-data-mcp — IMF economic data via SDMX 3.0 API.

CLI Tools

• SimpleFunctions CLI — sf scan, sf edges, sf watch, sf agent, sf intent. Covers Kalshi + Polymarket.

``bash npm i -g @spfunctions/cli && sf setup ``

• polymarket-cli — Official Polymarket CLI for order placement.

Agent Frameworks & Examples

Building AI agents that reason over prediction market data.

Frameworks

• LangChain — Wrap any prediction market API as a LangChain tool. Integration guide.
• CrewAI — Multi-agent crews for market analysis. Integration guide.
• AutoGen — Microsoft's multi-agent framework. Works with any REST API.
• OpenAI Agents SDK — Lightweight agent framework with handoffs and guardrails.

Example Projects

• prediction-market-context — Fetch structured market context for any LLM. One function call.
• causal-tree-decomposition — Standalone probability engine. Decompose a thesis into a causal tree, compute weighted confidence.
• kalshi-price-monitor — Terminal price alert monitor for Kalshi markets.
• polymarket-marketmaking — Market making bot for Polymarket.
• nevbot — Manifold market maker using OpenAI to answer questions.

Data & Datasets

Live Data

• SimpleFunctions /api/changes — Real-time cross-venue price changes. No auth required.
• SimpleFunctions /api/public/context — Structured market context for any topic. No auth required.
• Kalshi Market Data — All active markets, orderbook, trade history.
• Polymarket CLOB Data — Markets, orderbook, trades.
• Metaculus API — Questions, forecasts, community predictions.
• MetaForecast — Aggregated forecasts across platforms.

Historical Datasets

• Kalshi Historical Data — Settlement data for resolved markets.
• Polymarket Subgraph — On-chain data via The Graph.
• Manifold Markets Data — Full market history including bets.
• Good Judgment Open — Crowd forecasting data with track records.
• Metaculus Data Export — Historical question and resolution data.

Aggregators & Cross-Venue

• SimpleFunctions — Kalshi + Polymarket unified. Edge detection across venues.
• MetaForecast — Aggregates Metaculus, Polymarket, Manifold, Good Judgment, and more.
• Oddpool — Cross-venue odds, spreads, liquidity, arbitrage detection.
• BaseRateTimes — News through the lens of prediction markets.
• Electionbettingodds.com — Aggregated political prediction market odds.

Economic & Macro Data

The context layer for prediction markets — the economic indicators, government data, and macro signals that drive the events prediction markets trade on.

Aggregator Platforms

• OpenBB — Open-source financial data platform (65K+ stars). Covers FRED, World Bank, BLS, Eurostat, and hundreds of other data sources. Python, CLI, and AI agent integration.
• pandas-datareader — Extract data from FRED, World Bank, OECD, Eurostat, Stooq, and more into pandas DataFrames. The standard Python library for economic data access.
• DBnomics — Aggregates 80+ statistical providers (central banks, national statistics offices, international organizations). R client, Julia client, Stata client. Free API, no auth.
• findatapy — Download market data from Bloomberg, Eikon, Quandl, FRED and more via a unified interface.

FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)

• fredapi — Python client for FRED. pip install fredapi. Supports series search, vintages, releases.
• fredr — R client for FRED API. On CRAN.
• fred-rs — Rust crate for FRED.
• fredcpp — C++ client for FRED.
• FredApi.jl — Julia package for FRED.
• fredric — Ruby library and CLI for FRED.
• fred-mcp-server — MCP server for FRED data in Claude/Cursor.
• mcp-fredapi — Another FRED MCP server with search and category browsing.

Federal Reserve & Central Banks

• FRB — Python client for all Federal Reserve Bank data (not just FRED — includes flow of funds, financial accounts, survey data).
• econ_data — Python notebooks demonstrating FRED, BLS, Census, and BEA API usage with working examples.

World Bank

• wbdata — Python library for World Bank data. Tested: pulls GDP per capita for any country/date range. No auth.
• worldbank_data — Python library with pandas integration. Tested: pulls CPI inflation for US/CN/GB/BR. No auth.
• WDI — R package for World Bank data. On CRAN, 250+ stars.
• WorldBankData.jl — Julia package for World Bank data.

BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

• blscrapeR — R package for BLS data (unemployment, CPI, wages). 117 stars.
• blsAPI — R client for BLS API. 93 stars.
• BLS-APIs — Python wrapper for BLS v1/v2 APIs.
• BLS API v1 requires no auth key: curl https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/LNS14000000

IMF

• IMFData — R package for IMF data. 49 stars.
• imf-data-mcp — MCP server for IMF economic data via SDMX 3.0 API.
• IMF API requires no auth: https://data.imf.org (SDMX 3.0)

Eurostat

• eurostat-api-client — Python client for Eurostat data.
• eurostat_downloader — Python tool for bulk Eurostat downloads.
• Eurostat API requires no auth: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/

Multi-Agency / Government

• us-gov-open-data-mcp — MCP server + TypeScript SDK for 40+ U.S. government APIs (300+ tools). Covers FRED, Treasury, BLS, Census, EPA, FDA, SEC, Congress, and more. 20+ APIs need no auth key. 94 stars.

OECD

• OECD Data API requires no auth: https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/ (SDMX format)

Analytics & Research Tools

• Polymarket Analytics — Market stats and analytics.
• PolymarketStats — Open source Polymarket analytics.
• Kalshi Research — Market insights and analysis from Kalshi.

Tutorials & Guides

Getting Started

• Your First Prediction Market Trade from CLI — Step-by-step walkthrough from install to trade.
• Kalshi API Quick Start (JavaScript + Python) — Fetch markets, place orders, handle auth.
• Connect an AI Agent to Prediction Markets in 5 Minutes — Fastest path to a working agent.
• 5 Ways to Connect Your AI Agent to Prediction Markets — MCP, REST, CLI, LangChain, CrewAI compared.

Building Agents

• How to Build a World-Aware Claude Agent — MCP + Claude Code tutorial.
• How to Build a World-Aware LangChain Agent — Python + LangChain tutorial.
• [How to Build a World-Aware CrewAI Crew](https://simp

…

Source & license

This open-source MCP server is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

• Author: spfunctions
• Source: spfunctions/awesome-prediction-markets
• License: MIT

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.