Alphagbm Marks Cycle

AlphaGBM Howard Marks Cycle

"Cycles are real — the shape just isn't predictable." Howard Marks's framework rejects forecasting and replaces it with cycle-position awareness: offense when others are pessimistic, defense when others are optimistic.

This skill gives you the one number Marks's entire philosophy implies: where are we right now.

The Cycle Score

Each signal is mapped to its own cycle component 0-100, then weighted:

| Signal | Weight | Interpretation | |--------|--------|----------------| | VIX | 40% | Low VIX → complacency → late cycle (high score). High VIX → fear → early cycle (low score) | | IV Rank (SPY) | 25% | High IV rank → fear → early cycle | | Put/Call ratio | 20% | Low P/C → complacent → late cycle | | Valuation percentile | 15% | Higher PE percentile → later cycle |

Weights renormalize when data points are missing (e.g., P/C not available).

Posture Bands

• 0-24 → OFFENSE_HARD — extreme fear is opportunity. Buy aggressively.
• 25-39 → OFFENSE — add, sell vol (short premium).
• 40-59 → NEUTRAL — maintain positions, watch for shifts.
• 60-74 → DEFENSE — don't add, brace for volatility.
• 75-100 → DEFENSE_HARD — trim, buy protection (long puts / collars).

Why This Is a Separate Skill

alphagbm-vix-status gives just a VIX tier. alphagbm-market-sentiment gives a sentiment dashboard. This skill is the one-call Marks-specific read: "given everything I know about sentiment + valuation, what's the posture?"

How to Use

Input: none (market-level, no ticker)

Output:

• cycle_score: integer 0-100
• posture: one of OFFENSE_HARD / OFFENSE / NEUTRAL / DEFENSE / DEFENSE_HARD
• posture_zh, posture_en: natural-language prescription
• components: per-signal {value, cycle_component} breakdown

Example Queries

• where are we in the cycle right now → headline cycle number + posture
• should I be playing offense or defense → posture directly answers
• Howard Marks read on the market → same data, framed as Marks would
• is this a buying cycle → cycle 60 → no
• current sentiment across VIX and IV rank → components breakdown

Mock Data

Mock data in mock-data/marks-cycle/ — sample showing NEUTRAL position.

API Endpoint

GET /api/masters/marks-cycle

No body, no auth required.

Response shape:

{
  "success": true,
  "cycle_score": 47,
  "posture": "NEUTRAL",
  "posture_zh": "中性 — 维持既定仓位,观察情绪变化",
  "posture_en": "Neutral — maintain positions, watch sentiment",
  "components": {
    "vix": {"value": 22.5, "cycle_component": 48},
    "iv_rank": {"value": 55, "cycle_component": 45}
  },
  "timestamp": "2026-04-24T08:00:00"
}

Pricing: free — no auth, no credit deduction. 5-min cache.

Related Skills

| Skill | Relevance | |-------|-----------| | [alphagbm-vix-status](../alphagbm-vix-status/) | Raw VIX tier without Marks's multi-signal blend | | [alphagbm-market-sentiment](../alphagbm-market-sentiment/) | Fuller sentiment dashboard (VIX + P/C + F&G) | | [alphagbm-fear-score](../alphagbm-fear-score/) | Per-ticker version of the same "where's the fear" idea |

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Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

• Author: AlphaGBM
• Source: AlphaGBM/skills
• License: MIT
• Homepage: https://www.alphagbm.com/skills

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.