Alphagbm Polymarket

AlphaGBM Polymarket Integration

Bridges prediction markets and options markets -- when Polymarket says 70% chance of a rate cut but options imply 55%, that is a potential mispricing you can trade.

What This Skill Does

| Concept | Description | |---------|-------------| | Event Probability | The prediction market's consensus probability for a specific event (e.g., rate cut, election outcome) | | Options-Implied Probability | The probability the options market is pricing in, derived from option prices and skew | | Probability Spread | The gap between prediction market and options-implied probabilities -- large spreads signal mispricing | | Arbitrage Signal | When the spread exceeds a threshold, there may be a tradeable opportunity | | Event Correlation | How strongly a binary event maps to specific options positions | | Historical Accuracy | Track record of prediction markets vs options in forecasting similar past events |

How to Use

Input: An event type or query about prediction market vs options pricing.

Output:

• Event probability comparison table: Polymarket probability vs options-implied probability
• Probability spread and direction (which market is more bullish/bearish on the event)
• Mispricing signals ranked by confidence and spread size
• Suggested options trades to exploit the mispricing
• Historical accuracy comparison for similar past events

Example Queries:

• polymarket signals — Scan for the largest probability mismatches right now
• prediction market vs options rate cut — Compare Fed rate cut odds across markets
• event probability election — Election outcome probabilities vs options positioning
• rate cut odds — What prediction markets and options each imply about the next Fed meeting
• polymarket arbitrage — Actionable mispricing opportunities

Mock Data

Mock data files are located in mock-data/polymarket/ and include:

• rate-cut-comparison.json — Fed rate cut probabilities: Polymarket vs options-implied
• event-scan.json — Top mispricing signals across active prediction markets
• historical-accuracy.json — Past event forecasting accuracy by market type

API Endpoint

GET /api/analytics/polymarket/signals
GET /api/analytics/polymarket/event/{event_id}

Query parameters:

• event_type (string) — Filter: "fed", "election", "earnings", "macro", "all"
• min_spread (float, default 0.10) — Minimum probability spread to surface (10%)
• include_trades (bool, default true) — Include suggested options trades

Response fields: events[], polymarket_prob, options_implied_prob, spread, confidence, suggested_trades[], historical_accuracy

Related Skills

| Skill | Relevance | |-------|-----------| | [alphagbm-market-sentiment](../alphagbm-market-sentiment/) | Macro sentiment context for interpreting event probabilities | | [alphagbm-options-strategy](../alphagbm-options-strategy/) | Strategy recommendations that can exploit mispricing signals |

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Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

• Author: AlphaGBM
• Source: AlphaGBM/skills
• License: MIT
• Homepage: https://www.alphagbm.com/skills

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.