Synergy Stress Test

Synergy Stress Test

When to use

Stress-test deal synergies — separate cost vs revenue, grade evidence, apply haircuts, bar-test deal economics. Revenue synergies must not borrow credibility from cost lines.

What this skill does not do

• Does not blend cost and revenue lines.
• Does not invent deal economics — INPUT NEEDED for price/hurdle.
• Does not approve deal — recommendation on adjusted case.
• Does not skip mechanism check on revenue.

Preconditions

| Input | If missing | |---|---| | Synergy line items | Ask user or deck | | Profile synergy haircut / track record | Use default base-rate table; cite source | | Purchase price / hurdle for bar test | INPUT NEEDED — no fabricated IRR |

Provisional mode

Default haircuts tagged [unverified — industry pattern] unless profile has org track record.

Trust spine

• Analytical Rigor (mandatory): Per-line tier, haircut arithmetic, double-count scan.
• Per trust-conventions; GATE before board finals.

Base-rate anchor

| Type | Typical realization | |---|---| | Cost strong evidence | ~70–90% | | Cost weak | ~40–60% | | Revenue any tier | ~20–40% |

Use profile overrides when configured.

Workflow

1. Separate every line: cost vs revenue.
2. Grade evidence per line; state tier, haircut %, adjusted value. Connector-sourced figures (~~bi analytics, ~~crm, ~~spreadsheet) require [sourced: , , ] on each load-bearing number; otherwise use INPUT NEEDED.
3. Revenue mechanism check — missing mechanism → Weak.
4. Double-counting scan.
5. Recompute totals; bar test at adjusted number.

Output format

CONFIDENCE: [...]
COST SYNERGIES: [table]
REVENUE SYNERGIES: [table]
DOUBLE-COUNTING FLAGS: [...]
TOTALS: [...]
DEAL BAR TEST: [...]
RECOMMENDATION: [...]

Worked example

Input: $30M cost synergy (generic 10% G&A) + $50M revenue cross-sell (no mechanism).

Excerpt: Cost weak → ~50% haircut; revenue Weak → ~80% haircut; only works at optimistic number — material finding.

Quality checks before delivering

• [ ] No blended lines
• [ ] Every line tier + arithmetic
• [ ] Revenue without mechanism = Weak
• [ ] Double-count scan done
• [ ] Bar test plain if optimistic-only

Propose profile update

When a stable convention surfaces during this run (thresholds, naming, tone, output format, or recurring corrections), propose a profile update: show the exact diff against ~/.claude/plugins/config/claude-for-strategy/corporate-strategy/CLAUDE.md (org-wide facts go to org-profile.md), ask for confirmation, and write only on yes. Only /corporate-strategy:practice-setup auto-applies a full profile write.

Outputs

Follows plugin CLAUDE.md § Outputs. Next: renegotiate, evaluate-strategic-option, or IC with cost-only case.

Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

• Author: daddia
• Source: daddia/claude-for-strategy
• License: MIT

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.