Channel Economics Analyzer

Channel Economics Analyzer

Overview

A simple-but-rigorous channel-level P&L calculator for multi-channel e-commerce businesses. Computes per-channel: revenue, COGS, ad-spend, marketplace fees, operating margin, break-even order count. Output: scorecard that names which channels are loss-making and the minimum monthly order volume needed for profitability.

Core principle: Revenue is vanity, margin is sanity, cash is reality. A €5k/month channel that loses €500/month is worse than no channel at all.

When to use

• Multi-channel sellers (Direct-Shop + 1+ marketplace)
• Quarterly P&L review by channel
• "Should we keep this marketplace?" decisions
• Ad budget reallocation across channels
• Founder asks "is OTTO/Amazon actually profitable for us?"

Don't use for:

• Pure direct-to-consumer (no marketplace) — trivial
• Pure dropshipping with no COGS data
• New launch 15 %. Risky: 5-15 %. Loss-making: -period.csv` with columns:

order_id,date,gross_revenue,refunds,cogs,shipping,ad_spend,returns_cost

Sources:

• Amazon: Seller Central → Reports → Payments → Date Range Reports
• OTTO: OTTO Partner Connect → Berichte → Auszahlungen
• Shop: order export from Shopware/Shopify admin
• Ads: Google Ads/Amazon Ads/OTTO Ads campaign reports

Step 3 — Run the analyzer

node channel-economics.js

Output (per channel):

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
DIRECT-SHOP (last 90 days)
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
  Gross Revenue:      €48,200
  Refunds:            €1,840 (3.8%)
  Net Revenue:        €46,360
  COGS:               €18,544 (40%)
  Marketplace Fee:    €1,344 (2.9%)
  Shipping:           €3,200
  Gross Profit:       €23,272 (50.2% margin)
  Ad Spend:           €4,200
  Returns Handling:   €920
  Operating Profit:   €18,152 (39.2% margin)  ✅ HEALTHY
  
  Orders:             420
  Contribution / Order: €55.42
  Break-Even Orders:  77/mo (you did 140 — well above)

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
OTTO (last 90 days)
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
  Gross Revenue:      €8,400
  Net Revenue:        €7,980
  COGS:               €3,192
  Marketplace Fee:    €878 (11%)
  Shipping:           €560
  Gross Profit:       €3,350 (42% margin)
  Ad Spend:           €1,800
  Returns Handling:   €240
  Operating Profit:   €1,310 (16.4% margin)  ⚠️ RISKY
  
  Orders:             68 (22.6/mo)
  Contribution / Order: €49.26
  Break-Even Orders:  37/mo (you did 22.6 — below break-even)
  
  Recommendation: Cap OTTO ad spend at €500/mo OR commit to scaling
  to 40+ orders/mo. Current state burns €490/mo on a small order base.

Step 4 — Decide

Decision matrix:

| Channel state | Action | |---------------|--------| | Healthy (margin > 15 %) | Reinvest ad spend, scale slowly | | Risky (5–15 %) | Cap ad spend at break-even, optimize ops | | Loss-making (€100k/Mo | | Stripe direct | 1.5 % + €0.25 (EU cards) | Niedrigste PSP-Fees für reine Karten-Zahlungen |

Affiliate / Performance-Channels (extra layer auf jedem Channel)

| Channel | Typical commission you pay | Notes | |---------|-------------------:|-------| | Awin / TradeDoubler | 5–15 % auf vermittelte Sales | Plus Plattform-Fee von ~30 % auf die Affiliate-Auszahlung | | Influencer-Codes | 10–20 % via Code | Plus Sponsoring-Fee fix vor Sale | | Google Shopping | CPC ~€0.15–€1.20 (kategorie-abhängig) | Inklusive Margins nur als CPA-äquivalent berechnen | | Idealo Direktkauf | 5–8 % | Preisvergleichs-getriebener Channel, dünne Margen typisch | | billiger.de / Preisroboter | CPC oder 3–7 % CPA | Ähnlich Idealo, Marken-spezifisch |

Common channel-specific gotchas

| Channel | Hidden cost | |---------|-------------| | Amazon FBA | Storage fees scale with low-velocity SKUs — old inventory eats margin. Aged-inventory-surcharge nach 6 Monaten verdoppelt sich | | Amazon advertising | "Sponsored Products" auto-bid burns budget on irrelevant terms — always negative-keyword. Plus: Brand-Cannibalization (du bewirbst dein eigenes Brand-Keyword teurer als ohne PPC) | | OTTO | Returns rate often 2-3× direct shop (sizing mismatches). Plus: "Strafgebühren" für SLA-Verletzungen (verspätete Verarbeitung) | | Kaufland.de | Schedule-Compliance strikt — verspätete Lieferung führt zu Account-Suspend | | eBay | Auction volatility skews per-order margin. Promoted-Listings sind quasi-erzwungen seit 2024 (ohne kein organischer Traffic) | | Zalando | Heavy commission tier (20-25%) makes most price-aggressive SKUs unprofitable. Plus Zalando-Logistik-Pflicht in vielen Kategorien | | About You | Hohe Returns durch Mode-Sizing. Marken-Approval-Prozess langwierig | | Etsy | Listing fees + ads + transaction fees stack up — calculate all three. Etsy-Offsite-Ads sind 15 % EXTRA Fee bei Sales von Externals | | Wayfair | Drop-Ship-Modell heißt: du trägst Inventory-Risk, Wayfair nimmt 15-25 % Cut | | TikTok Shop | Returns extrem hoch (Impulse-Buying), Returns-Logistics oft Verkäufer-pflicht | | Instagram/Meta Shop | Reach-Algorithmus bevorzugt Reels — statische Posts sehen kaum Sales | | Bol.com | Selektive Verifikation — kann Wochen dauern bis Listings live sind | | CDiscount | Monatliche Pauschal-Fees ~€40 + Provision, lohnt sich erst ab €1k Umsatz/Monat | | Faire (Wholesale) | First-Order-Cut 25 % schreckt viele Boutiquen ab — Repeat-Mechanik einplanen | | Alibaba B2B | Trade-Assurance-Pflicht für Bezahlung, sonst hohes Buyer-Default-Risiko | | Direct shop | Payment provider fees (Klarna, PayPal) often 2-3% — don't forget. Plus: Currency-Conversion-Fees bei Cross-Border | | Idealo Direktkauf | Preis-Race-to-Bottom — wenn du deine Marge senkst, ziehen alle nach | | Affiliate (Awin/TradeDoubler) | Last-Cookie-Wins-Attribution oft unfair zu organischem Traffic — über-credited Affiliate-Sales fressen Marge | | Google Shopping | CPC-Inflation in saturierten Kategorien (Matratzen, Möbel, Elektronik) — ROAS oft <1 |

Recommended channel-portfolio templates

Picking which channels to start with depends on your category. Patterns we've seen work:

E-commerce shop (DACH-fokussiert)

• Direct-Shop (Anker, höchste Marge)
• Amazon DE (Reichweite, aber Marge-Killer)
• 1 weitere DACH-Marketplace (OTTO oder Kaufland je nach Kategorie)
• Optional: Idealo Direktkauf falls Preis-führend in Kategorie

Mode/Lifestyle

• Direct-Shop
• Zalando Partner ODER About You (nicht beide — kannibalisieren sich)
• Instagram/TikTok Shop (Social-Commerce-Test)
• Optional: Etsy (für handmade-Subkategorie)

Möbel/Home

• Direct-Shop
• OTTO (DACH-Standard für Möbel)
• Kaufland.de (wachsend in Möbel-Kategorie)
• Wayfair (US/EU-Drop-Ship-Test wenn international skalierbar)

Niche/Sustainability

• Direct-Shop
• Avocadostore (Nachhaltigkeits-Filter)
• Faire / Ankorstore (B2B-Wholesale an Concept-Stores)
• Etsy (handmade/customized)

B2B / Industrie

• Direct-Shop mit B2B-Bereich (eingeloggte Großhändler-Preise)
• Alibaba.com (international sourcing-Channel)
• eBay B2B (Surplus/Restposten)
• Branchenspezifische Marketplaces (z.B. Conrad B2B, Mercateo)

Anti-Pattern: "Wir sind auf allen Marketplaces" — jeder Channel braucht eigene SKU-Pflege, Customer-Service, Returns-Handling. Mehr Channels = mehr Fixkosten. Bei <€500k Jahresumsatz: max 3 Channels gleichzeitig.

Real-world anchor data (anonymized 2026)

• Mid-size DE matresses shop: OTTO channel went from break-even to −€500/mo when monthly orders fell from 30 to 12. Decision: cap ads at €500/mo, hold for 6 months, decide.
• Same shop: Direct channel margin 39 %, Amazon margin 18 %, OTTO margin 12 % (declining). Capital allocation reshuffled toward Direct.

Implementation

A starter script is provided in this folder as channel-economics.example.js. It expects channels.json + per-channel CSVs in ./data/ and prints the report to stdout. Customize fee rates and the report template for your business.

Related skills

• seo-outreach-report — if the question is "why does my channel not get more traffic", this comes first; channel-economics tells you whether traffic is even monetizable
• claude-mem:knowledge-agent — for tracking decisions and revisiting in 60-90 days

Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

• Author: maxschottke-spec
• Source: maxschottke-spec/seo-survival-kit
• License: MIT

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.