Churn Prevention

Churn Prevention

Purpose

Reduce churn across three stages: before they want to leave (health scoring + proactive outreach), while they're leaving (cancel flow + save offers), and after they've left (win-back campaigns). Plus dunning sequences for involuntary churn from failed payments.

Reads

• brand/audience.md — Personas, pain points, what they value most
• brand/positioning.md — Value props for reinforcement in save offers and win-back copy
• brand/voice-profile.md — Brand voice for all cancel flow and email copy

Brand Integration

• audience.md — Churn signals vary by persona. Power users churn from missing features; casual users churn from confusion. Tailor intervention messaging to the persona's primary motivation.
• positioning.md — Save offers and win-back copy should reinforce the brand's core value proposition, not just offer discounts. Remind users of the specific value they're losing.
• voice-profile.md — Cancel flow copy must match brand voice. A playful brand says 'We'll miss you! Here's what you'll lose...' A professional brand says 'Before you go, here's a summary of your account value.' Win-back emails must sound like the brand, not like a desperate ex.

Workflow

Step 1: Analyze Churn Triggers

Identify and categorize churn drivers:

Voluntary Churn (they chose to leave):

| Trigger | Signal | Intervention Window | |---------|--------|-------------------| | Not using core feature | Screen 2A | |- Missing features I need -> Screen 2B | |- Not using it enough -> Screen 2C | |- Switching to another tool -> Screen 2D | |- Just need a break -> Screen 2E | |- Other -> Screen 2F

Screen 2A (Too expensive): |- Show usage stats: "You've [achievement] with [Product] this month" |- Offer: Downgrade to lower plan / Annual discount / Pause billing |- CTA: "Switch to [cheaper plan] — keep [key features]" |- Skip: "No thanks, continue canceling"

Screen 2B (Missing features): |- "Which features would keep you?" |- Show roadmap items if relevant: "[Feature] ships in [timeframe]" |- Offer: "We'll notify you when [feature] launches" |- Skip: "Continue canceling"

Screen 2C (Not using it enough): |- Show quick wins: "Here are 3 things you haven't tried yet" |- Offer: Pause for 1-3 months instead of canceling |- Offer: Free onboarding call |- Skip: "Continue canceling"

Screen 2D (Switching to competitor): |- "Which tool are you switching to?" (optional) |- Show comparison: "Here's how [Product] compares on [key features]" |- Offer: Match competitor pricing / free migration assistance |- Skip: "Continue canceling"

Screen 2E (Need a break): |- "We get it. Pause your account instead?" |- Options: Pause 1 month / 2 months / 3 months |- "Your data and settings stay exactly as they are" |- Skip: "Cancel instead"

Screen 2F (Other): |- Open text feedback |- "Thanks for sharing. Is there anything we can do?" |- Skip: "Continue canceling"

Screen 3 (Final confirmation): |- Summary of what they'll lose (specific to their usage) |- "Your [X] projects and [Y] data will be deleted after 30 days" |- Final CTA: "Keep my account" (primary) / "Cancel" (secondary, muted) |- Post-cancel: "Account canceled. You have access until [date]."

### Step 4: Build Dunning Sequence

For involuntary churn (failed payments):

**Day 0 — Payment Failed (Immediate)**

Subject: Action needed — your payment didn't go through

Your latest payment for [Product] didn't process. This usually happens when a card expires or has insufficient funds.

[Update Payment Method] <- primary CTA

Your account is still active. We'll retry in 3 days.

**Day 3 — First Retry Failed**

Subject: Your [Product] payment still needs attention

We tried charging your card again but it didn't work.

Quick fixes:

• Update your card: [link]
• Try a different payment method: [link]

Your account stays active for now, but features will be limited on [date + 7 days] if we can't process payment.

**Day 7 — Warning**

Subject: Your [Product] account will be limited tomorrow

We haven't been able to process your payment.

Tomorrow your account will switch to limited mode:

• [Feature 1] will be paused
• [Feature 2] will be read-only
• Your data is safe — nothing is deleted

Takes 30 seconds to fix: [Update Payment]

**Day 10 — Last Chance**

Subject: Last call — update your payment to keep [Product]

Your account is now in limited mode.

You've built [specific: X projects / Y workflows / Z data points] in [Product]. Update your payment to pick up where you left off.

[Reactivate Now]

If we don't hear from you by [date + 14], your account will be suspended. Your data is preserved for 60 days.

**Day 14 — Account Suspended**

Subject: Your [Product] account has been suspended

Your account is suspended due to non-payment. Your data is safe and preserved for 60 days.

Ready to come back? [Reactivate — takes 30 seconds]

If you meant to cancel, no action needed. We'll delete your data after [date + 60] for privacy.

### Step 5: Create Win-Back Campaign

For users who completed cancellation:

**Day 7 Post-Cancel — Soft Check-In**

Subject: How's it going without [Product]?

No pitch — just curious how things are going.

If you switched to something else, we'd genuinely love to know what they do better. Reply to this email anytime.

— [Founder name]

**Day 30 Post-Cancel — Value Reminder**

Subject: Here's what shipped since you left

A few things we've built since you canceled:

• [Feature 1]: [one-line benefit]
• [Feature 2]: [one-line benefit]
• [Improvement]: [one-line benefit]

[See what's new] — your data is still here if you want to come back.

**Day 60 Post-Cancel — Win-Back Offer**

Subject: Come back to [Product] — [X]% off for 3 months

We'd love to have you back.

Here's a [X]% discount for your first 3 months back. Your previous [projects/data/settings] are still saved.

[Reactivate with [X]% off]

Offer expires [date + 14 days].

**Day 90 Post-Cancel — Final Reach**

Subject: Your [Product] data will be deleted on [date]

Per our privacy policy, we delete account data 90 days after cancellation.

Want to keep your data? [Reactivate] or [Download your data]

After [date], it's permanently removed.

## Retention Metric Frameworks

Track these to measure churn prevention effectiveness:

| Metric | Formula | Target |
|--------|---------|--------|
| Gross churn rate | Lost MRR / Starting MRR | <5% monthly |
| Net churn rate | (Lost MRR - Expansion MRR) / Starting MRR | <0% (net negative) |
| Save rate | Saved cancellations / Total cancel attempts | 15-30% |
| Dunning recovery rate | Recovered payments / Failed payments | 50-70% |
| Win-back rate | Reactivated / Total churned | 5-15% |
| Time to churn | Days from first risk signal to cancellation | Track trend |

## Output

Each churn prevention build produces:
- Health score model with component weights
- Cancel flow wireframe with copy for every screen and branch
- Dunning email sequence (5 emails with timing)
- Win-back campaign (4 emails with timing)
- Retention metrics dashboard spec
- Proactive intervention playbook per risk signal

## Anti-Patterns

- Never hide the cancel button or make it hard to find — this is a dark pattern and may violate FTC rules
- Never guilt-trip users ("You'll lose EVERYTHING!") — state facts about what changes, not emotional manipulation
- Never use threatening language in dunning emails ("Your account will be TERMINATED") — keep the tone helpful
- Never offer discounts to every canceller — this trains users to cancel for discounts; segment by reason and value
- Never skip the cancel confirmation — users must see what they'll lose and confirm intentionally
- Never send win-back emails more than 4 times in 90 days — respect the user's decision

## Edge Cases

- **Freemium products:** No payment to fail, so dunning doesn't apply. Focus on voluntary churn: cancel flow becomes "downgrade to free" flow. Lead with what they keep on free tier.
- **Annual billing:** Cancel flow should show prorated refund options. Longer save window since they've already paid. Route to customer success more aggressively (higher LTV at stake).
- **Regulated industries:** Healthcare and finance may have specific data retention and notification requirements. Flag for legal review before implementing data deletion timelines.
- **Team/enterprise accounts:** Show team impact ("Your 8 team members will lose access"). Require admin role to cancel. Route high-MRR accounts to customer success.

See `references/cancel-flow-patterns.md` for business-type segmentation and compliance details. See `references/dunning-playbook.md` for provider-specific setup and smart retry strategies.

## Quality Checks

- [ ] Cancel flow offers genuine alternatives, not guilt trips
- [ ] Dunning emails are helpful, not threatening
- [ ] Win-back offers have real value, not desperation discounts
- [ ] Health score covers usage, engagement, sentiment, and growth
- [ ] All emails have clear single CTA
- [ ] Data deletion timeline is clearly communicated
- [ ] Pause option available as cancel alternative
- [ ] Cancel path is always completable — no dead ends or hidden buttons
- [ ] Copy matches brand voice (if voice-profile.md exists)
- [ ] Compliance considerations noted (FTC click-to-cancel, GDPR data retention)

## Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

- **Author:** [MoizIbnYousaf](https://github.com/MoizIbnYousaf)
- **Source:** [MoizIbnYousaf/marketing-cli](https://github.com/MoizIbnYousaf/marketing-cli)
- **License:** MIT
- **Homepage:** https://www.marketing-cli.com/

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.