Stanley Druckenmiller Investment

Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer

Purpose

Synthesize outputs from 8 upstream analysis skills (5 required + 3 optional) into a single composite conviction score (0-100), classify the market into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns, and generate actionable allocation recommendations. This is a meta-skill that consumes structured JSON outputs from other skills — it requires no API keys of its own.

When to Use This Skill

• User asks "What's my overall conviction?" or "How should I be positioned?"
• User wants a unified view synthesizing breadth, uptrend, top risk, macro, and FTD signals
• User asks about Druckenmiller-style portfolio positioning
• User requests strategy synthesis after running individual analysis skills
• User asks "Should I increase or decrease exposure?"
• User wants pattern classification (policy pivot, distortion, contrarian, wait)

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Input Requirements

Required Skills (5)

| # | Skill | JSON Prefix | Role | |---|-------|-------------|------| | 1 | Market Breadth Analyzer | market_breadth_ | Market participation breadth | | 2 | Uptrend Analyzer | uptrend_analysis_ | Sector uptrend ratios | | 3 | Market Top Detector | market_top_ | Distribution / top risk (defense) | | 4 | Macro Regime Detector | macro_regime_ | Macro regime transition (1-2Y structure) | | 5 | FTD Detector | ftd_detector_ | Bottom confirmation / re-entry (offense) |

Optional Skills (3)

| # | Skill | JSON Prefix | Role | |---|-------|-------------|------| | 6 | VCP Screener | vcp_screener_ | Momentum stock setups (VCP) | | 7 | Theme Detector | theme_detector_ | Theme / sector momentum | | 8 | CANSLIM Screener | canslim_screener_ | Growth stock setups + M(Market Direction) |

Run the required skills first. The synthesizer reads their JSON output from reports/.

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Execution Workflow

Phase 1: Verify Prerequisites

Check that the 5 required skill JSON reports exist in reports/ and are recent (= 60 + contraction/inflationary regime | "How much you lose when wrong matters most" | | Extreme Sentiment Contrarian | FTD confirmed + high top risk + bearish breadth | "Most money made in bear markets" | | Wait & Observe | Low conviction + mixed signals (default) | "When you don't see it, don't swing" |

Conviction Zone Mapping

| Score | Zone | Exposure | Guidance | |-------|------|----------|----------| | 80-100 | Maximum Conviction | 90-100% | Fat pitch - swing hard | | 60-79 | High Conviction | 70-90% | Standard risk management | | 40-59 | Moderate Conviction | 50-70% | Reduce position sizes | | 20-39 | Low Conviction | 20-50% | Preserve capital, minimal risk | | 0-19 | Capital Preservation | 0-20% | Maximum defense |

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Output Files

• druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json — Structured analysis data
• druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md — Human-readable report

API Requirements

None. This skill reads JSON outputs from other skills. No API keys required.

Reference Documents

references/investment-philosophy.md

• Core Druckenmiller principles: concentration, capital preservation, 18-month horizon
• Quantitative rules: daily vol targets, max position sizing
• Load when providing philosophical context for conviction assessment

references/market-analysis-guide.md

• Signal-to-action mapping framework
• Macro regime interpretation for allocation decisions
• Load when explaining component scores or allocation rationale

references/case-studies.md

• Historical examples: 1992 GBP, 2000 tech bubble, 2008 crisis
• Pattern classification examples with actual market conditions
• Load when user asks about historical parallels

references/conviction_matrix.md

• Quantitative signal-to-action mapping tables
• Market Top Zone x Macro Regime matrix
• Load when user needs precise exposure numbers for specific signal combinations

When to Load References

• First use: Load investment-philosophy.md for framework understanding
• Allocation questions: Load market-analysis-guide.md + conviction_matrix.md
• Historical context: Load case-studies.md
• Regular execution: References not needed — script handles scoring

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Relationship to Other Skills

| Skill | Relationship | Time Horizon | |-------|-------------|-------------| | Market Breadth Analyzer | Input (required) | Current snapshot | | Uptrend Analyzer | Input (required) | Current snapshot | | Market Top Detector | Input (required) | 2-8 weeks tactical | | Macro Regime Detector | Input (required) | 1-2 years structural | | FTD Detector | Input (required) | Days-weeks event | | VCP Screener | Input (optional) | Setup-specific | | Theme Detector | Input (optional) | Weeks-months thematic | | CANSLIM Screener | Input (optional) | Setup-specific | | This Skill | Synthesizer | Unified conviction |

Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

• Author: xonevn-ai
• Source: xonevn-ai/xone-trading-skills
• License: MIT
• Homepage: https://xone.vn

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.