Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis

Before running any analysis, always retrieve the latest market data for the ticker:

1. Fetch current price — use web search or ask the user for the live price, 52-week range, and market cap. Never assume a price from training data.
2. Confirm key figures — recent earnings, revenue, key ratios (P/E, P/S, etc.) as applicable to this skill.
3. State your data source — note where the numbers came from (e.g., "Google Finance, June 19 2026") at the top of the output.
4. Flag stale data explicitly — if live data is unavailable, display this warning before proceeding:

> ⚠️ Live data unavailable. The following analysis uses training-data estimates which may be significantly out of date. Verify all prices and metrics before making any decisions.

Never silently substitute training-data estimates for current prices. When in doubt, ask the user to paste the latest quote.

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Perform technical analysis of US stocks using price action, chart patterns, and technical indicators.

Chart Pattern Analysis

1. Trend Identification

• Primary trend (uptrend, downtrend, sideways)
• Trend strength and momentum
• Support and resistance levels
• Trendline analysis

1. Classic Chart Patterns

• Head and shoulders, inverse H&S
• Double/triple tops and bottoms
• Cup and handle
• Triangles (ascending, descending, symmetrical)
• Flags and pennants
• Wedges and channels

1. Candlestick Patterns

• Reversal patterns (doji, hammer, shooting star, engulfing)
• Continuation patterns
• Multi-candle formations

Technical Indicators

1. Trend Indicators

• Moving averages (SMA, EMA: 20, 50, 200-day)
• Moving average crossovers
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
• ADX (Average Directional Index)

1. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index)
• Stochastic oscillator
• Williams %R
• Rate of Change (ROC)

1. Volume Indicators

• Volume trends and patterns
• On-Balance Volume (OBV)
• Volume-weighted average price (VWAP)
• Accumulation/Distribution line

1. Volatility Indicators

• Bollinger Bands
• Average True Range (ATR)
• Volatility Index correlation

Price Levels

• Key support and resistance zones
• Fibonacci retracement levels
• Pivot points
• Round number psychology
• Gap analysis

Market Context

• Relative strength vs. market indices
• Sector rotation analysis
• Market breadth indicators
• Correlation with related assets

Moving Average Chart Analysis

When given a stock ticker, always generate an MA chart and trade recommendation table as part of the analysis. This is the first required output section.

MA Chart — Markdown Format

Retrieve or estimate recent price data and compute the following MAs:

| MA Period | Label | Trend Role | |-----------|-------|------------| | 30-day SMA | MA30 | Short-term trend | | 60-day SMA | MA60 | Intermediate trend | | 90-day SMA | MA90 | Medium-term trend | | 200-day SMA | MA200 | Long-term bull/bear line | | 365-day SMA | MA365 | Annual trend baseline |

Required output — MA Position Table:

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  MOVING AVERAGE CHART — [TICKER]          [DATE]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  Current Price : $[PRICE]

  MA       Value      vs Price    Signal
  ──────   ────────   ─────────   ───────────────────
  MA30     $[val]     ▲ +X.X%     [Above/Below] ← Short-term
  MA60     $[val]     ▲ +X.X%     [Above/Below] ← Intermediate
  MA90     $[val]     ▲ +X.X%     [Above/Below] ← Medium-term
  MA200    $[val]     ▼ -X.X%     [Above/Below] ← Long-term bull/bear
  MA365    $[val]     ▼ -X.X%     [Above/Below] ← Annual baseline
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
  MA Stack: [BULLISH / BEARISH / MIXED]
  (Bullish = MA30 > MA60 > MA90 > MA200 > MA365)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

ASCII Trend Chart (last ~90 trading days):

Price ($)
[HIGH] ┤         ╭──╮    ╭──╮
       ┤    ╭────╯  ╰────╯  ╰──╮       ← Price
       ┤────╯                   ╰──╮
       ┤·  ·  ·  ·  ·  ·  ·  ·  · ╰──  ← MA30
       ┤══════════════════════════════   ← MA60
       ┤- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -   ← MA90
[LOW]  ┤══════════════════════════════   ← MA200
       └─┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬──→
       -90d  -70d  -50d  -30d  -10d  Today

Legend: ──── Price  · · · MA30  ════ MA60/MA200  - - - MA90

MA Crossover Signals

Look for and report these high-significance crossover events:

| Crossover | Type | Significance | |-----------|------|--------------| | MA30 crosses above MA60 | Golden Cross (short) | Short-term bullish momentum | | MA30 crosses below MA60 | Death Cross (short) | Short-term bearish reversal | | MA50 crosses above MA200 | Golden Cross (classic) | Major long-term bullish signal | | MA50 crosses below MA200 | Death Cross (classic) | Major long-term bearish signal | | Price reclaims MA200 from below | Breakout | Shift from bear to bull regime | | Price loses MA200 support | Breakdown | Shift from bull to bear regime |

State: most recent crossover event + how many days ago it occurred.

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Trade Recommendation from MA Analysis

After computing MAs, output a clear, specific trade recommendation table:

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║              MA-BASED TRADE RECOMMENDATION — [TICKER]           ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║  Current Price : $[PRICE]                                       ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║  OPERATION      │ ENTRY PRICE   │ TARGET        │ STOP-LOSS     ║
║  ───────────────┼───────────────┼───────────────┼────────────── ║
║  [BUY/SELL/HOLD]│ $[price]      │ $[price]      │ $[price]      ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║  Rationale: [1-sentence MA-based reason]                        ║
║  Basis:     MA[X] = $[val] acting as [support/resistance]       ║
║  R/R Ratio: 1 : [X.X]                                          ║
║  Horizon:   [SHORT / SWING / LONG-TERM]                         ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

Examples of well-formed recommendations:

• "$185 is a good BUY entry for AAPL — price pulled back to MA90 ($183) which held as support, targeting MA resistance at $198 with stop below MA200 ($175). R/R 1:2.1."
• "$310 is a good SELL/SHORT entry for TSLA — price rejected MA60 ($312) as resistance while MA30 crossed below MA60, targeting $275 with stop at $320. R/R 1:2.5."
• "HOLD for MSFT — price is compressing between MA30 ($415) and MA60 ($420); wait for a confirmed break above MA60 before adding."

Decision rules:

• Price above all 5 MAs in bullish stack → BUY on MA30/MA60 dips
• Price below MA200 but reclaiming MA90 → speculative BUY with tight stop
• Price below all 5 MAs → SELL/AVOID; short only if MA30 70): Red shaded area
• Oversold zone ( VAH (above Value Area) | Bullish — market accepted higher prices, strong trend | Buy breakouts above VAH with volume |

| Price Span B (cloud is green/bullish) | Trend support | | TK Cross (Bullish) | Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen | Medium signal | | TK Cross above Cloud | Bullish TK cross while price is above the cloud | Strong signal | | Chikou above price | Chikou Span is above historical price 26 periods ago | Confirms uptrend | | All 5 elements aligned | All conditions bullish simultaneously | Strongest signal |

Bearish Ichimoku Signals

| Signal | Condition | Strength | |---------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|----------| | Price below Cloud | Price below both Span A and Span B | Base condition | | Red Cloud | Span B > Span A (cloud is red/bearish) | Trend resistance | | TK Cross (Bearish) | Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen | Medium signal | | TK Cross below Cloud | Bearish TK cross while price is below the cloud | Strong signal | | Chikou below price | Chikou Span is below historical price 26 periods ago | Confirms downtrend | | All 5 elements aligned | All conditions bearish simultaneously | Strongest signal |

Kumo Twist

• A Kumo Twist occurs when Senkou Span A and Span B cross — changing the cloud color from green to red (bearish twist) or red to green (bullish twist).
• The cloud is plotted 26 periods ahead, so a Kumo Twist is an early warning signal visible in advance.
• Thin cloud: Weak support/resistance — price can break through easily.
• Thick cloud: Strong support/resistance — price will struggle to penetrate.

Ichimoku Signal Strength Matrix

| # Bullish Conditions Met | Signal Grade | Suggested Bias | |--------------------------|------------------------|-------------------| | 5/5 | Maximum Bullish | Strong long bias | | 4/5 | Strong Bullish | Long bias | | 3/5 | Moderate Bullish | Lean long | | 2/5 | Mixed / Transitioning | Neutral | | 1/5 or 0/5 | Bearish | Short bias |

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Options Flow Integration

Put/Call Ratio Interpretation

The Put/Call ratio measures options market sentiment — the ratio of put volume to call volume on a given day.

| P/C Ratio | Interpretation | |-------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------| | 1.3 | Extreme fear — potential contrarian buy signal (maximum bearishness)|

CBOE Total P/C vs. Equity-Only P/C: Equity-only P/C more directly reflects retail/institutional directional bets (excludes index hedging).

Unusual Options Activity (UOA) Signals

• Large block trades: Single orders of 500+ contracts, especially OTM (out-of-the-money)
• OTM sweeps: Aggressive market orders sweeping multiple exchanges at ask — directional conviction
• Dark pool prints: Large, off-exchange block prints can signal institutional accumulation/distribution
• Short-dated OTM calls on takeover candidates: One of the most reliable pre-announcement signals
• Key UOA filters: Volume > 5x open interest, expiry within 30 days, OTM strike, market order execution

Implied Volatility (IV) vs. Historical Volatility (HV)

| Condition | Description | Options Strategy Implication | |-------------|----------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------| | IV >> HV | Options are expensive — market pricing elevated moves | Premium selling opportunity (write options) | | IV ≈ HV | Options fairly priced | No directional vol edge | | IV 50 = elevated; IVR Note: This section provides interpretive framework. Actual real-time options flow data, IV readings, and GEX levels must be sourced from the user's options data provider (e.g., Market Chameleon, Unusual Whales, SpotGamma, Thinkorswim).

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Output

Provide technical analysis report with:

• Current trend and momentum assessment
• Key chart patterns identified
• Support and resistance levels
• Technical indicator signals
• Volume and volatility analysis
• Entry/exit points and price targets
• Stop-loss recommendations
• Risk/reward ratio for trade setups
• Time horizon (short-term, swing, position trading)
• MTF alignment score and summary table
• Ichimoku Cloud status (price above/below/inside cloud)
• Volume Profile POC, VAH, VAL levels

Enhanced Output (with --chart flag)

• All standard output sections above
• Chart data tables for price, volume, and indicators
• MTF confluence table with signal direction per timeframe
• ASCII charts for terminal display
• Pattern recognition overlays with annotations
• Support/resistance level visualizations
• Volume Profile data (POC, VA, LVN/HVN zones)
• Technical indicator panels (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku)
• Chart specifications for HTML report generation
• Color-coded signals (bullish/bearish/neutral)

Keep analysis objective and data-driven, avoiding emotional bias.

Standard Signal Output

All analysis concludes with this standardized block:

## Thesis Invalidation

After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:

**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
- Price closes below the MA200 / key support level identified in this analysis on above-average volume
- MA30 crosses below MA60 (death cross) AND RSI drops below 40
- Macro regime shift: Fed pivots hawkish unexpectedly, recession probability >60%

**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
- Price closes above key resistance / MA200 level with volume confirmation
- price reclaims MA200 AND MA30 turns up AND volume confirms
- Fundamental improvement: surprise earnings beat >20% with guidance raise

**Re-run this analysis when:**
- [ ] Next earnings release
- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝

Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals) Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)

Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

• Author: yennanliu
• Source: yennanliu/InvestSkill
• License: MIT
• Homepage: http://yennj12.js.org/InvestSkill/

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.