Skill 017

Time Series Anomaly Detection

This skill provides guidance on identifying anomalies within time series data, a critical task in fields such as finance, manufacturing, and IoT.

Overview

Anomalies in time series can indicate critical events, fraud, or operational issues. Detecting these anomalies is vital for:

• Fraud detection in transactions
• Monitoring equipment health
• Alerting on unexpected system behavior

Techniques for Anomaly Detection

Several methods can be utilized for detecting anomalies in time series data, including:

• Statistical methods (Z-scores, IQR)
• Machine learning models (Isolation Forest, LSTM)
• Change point detection

Statistical Methods

Z-Score Method

The Z-score method involves calculating the Z-score for each data point to identify how far it is from the mean. A common threshold is a Z-score of +/- 3.

Python Implementation

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

# Load your time series data
# data = pd.read_csv('your_time_series.csv')

mean = np.mean(data['value'])
std_dev = np.std(data['value'])

# Calculate Z-scores
data['z_score'] = (data['value'] - mean) / std_dev

# Identify anomalies
anomalies = data[(data['z_score'] > 3) | (data['z_score'] < -3)]
print(anomalies)

Machine Learning Methods

Isolation Forest

Isolation Forest is an effective algorithm for anomaly detection that isolates anomalies instead of profiling normal data points.

Python Implementation

from sklearn.ensemble import IsolationForest

# Load your time series data
# data = pd.read_csv('your_time_series.csv')

model = IsolationForest(contamination=0.01)
model.fit(data[['value']])

# Predict anomalies
data['anomaly'] = model.predict(data[['value']])
# Anomalies will be labeled as -1
anomalies = data[data['anomaly'] == -1]
print(anomalies)

Change Point Detection

Change point detection helps find points in time series where the statistical properties change significantly. This is useful for monitoring systems that may exhibit sudden shifts.

Python Implementation

from ruptures import Pelt
from ruptures.costs import CostL2

# Load your time series data
# data = pd.read_csv('your_time_series.csv')

algo = Pelt(CostL2()).fit(data['value'].values)
change_points = algo.predict(pen=10)
print(change_points)

Conclusion

Detecting anomalies in time series is essential for various applications. The choice of method will depend on the data characteristics and the specific requirements of the task.

Source & license

This open-source skill is cataloged on AgentStack and links to its original source — we do not rehost the code.

• Author: legendtkl
• Source: legendtkl/agentic-skill-router
• License: MIT
• Homepage: https://legendtkl.github.io/agentic-skill-router/

Install and usage instructions live in the source repository linked above.